Читать книгу See-Through Modelling - Dominic Robertson - Страница 44

To find the appropriate inputs the most efficient path into the model is by starting in the financial statements.

A standard question facing the analyst could be: “What effect will a change in RPI have on the dividends?”

This question refers to a result from the financial statements – dividends – and also an input into the model in the form of a forecast RPI inflation rate. So where should the analyst start? Should the analyst go straight for the possible input, or start somewhere else to ensure the right input is found?

Using the tree analogy it is clear that travelling down a root system from the tree trunk to the roots with intelligence will quickly lead to the input in question. Conversely, testing inputs and tracking up from the roots to the results is by far more time-consuming and inefficient.

The reason is that travelling up a tree diagram in Excel the modeller will be confronted by a trace dependents window like the one in Figure 5.