Читать книгу Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis - Douglas C. Montgomery - Страница 15

We could pursue a retrospective study that would use either all or a sample of the historical process data over some period of time to determine the relationships among the two temperatures and the reflux rate on the acetone concentration in the product stream. In so doing, we take advantage of previously collected data and minimize the cost of the study. However, there are several problems:

1 We really cannot see the effect of reflux on the concentration since we must assume that it did not vary much over the historical period.

2 The data relating the two temperatures to the acetone concentration do not correspond directly. Constructing an approximate correspondence usually requires a great deal of effort.

3 Production controls temperatures as tightly as possible to specific target values through the use of automatic controllers. Since the two temperatures vary so little over time, we will have a great deal of difficulty seeing their real impact on the concentration.

4 Within the narrow ranges that they do vary, the condensate temperature tends to increase with the reboil temperature. As a result, we will have a great deal of difficulty separating out the individual effects of the two temperatures. This leads to the problem of collinearity or multicollinearity, which we discuss in Chapter 9.

Retrospective studies often offer limited amounts of useful information. In general, their primary disadvantages are as follows:

 Some of the relevant data often are missing.

 The reliability and quality of the data are often highly questionable.

 The nature of the data often may not allow us to address the problem at hand.

 The analyst often tries to use the data in ways they were never intended to be used.

 Logs, notebooks, and memories may not explain interesting phenomena identified by the data analysis.

Using historical data always involves the risk that, for whatever reason, some of the data were not recorded or were lost. Typically, historical data consist of information considered critical and of information that is convenient to collect. The convenient information is often collected with great care and accuracy. The essential information often is not. Consequently, historical data often suffer from transcription errors and other problems with data quality. These errors make historical data prone to outliers, or observations that are very different from the bulk of the data. A regression analysis is only as reliable as the data on which it is based.

Just because data are convenient to collect does not mean that these data are particularly useful. Often, data not considered essential for routine process monitoring and not convenient to collect do have a significant impact on the process. Historical data cannot provide this information since they were never collected. For example, the ambient temperature may impact the heat losses from our distillation column. On cold days, the column loses more heat to the environment than during very warm days. The production logs for this acetone–butyl alcohol column do not record the ambient temperature. As a result, historical data do not allow the analyst to include this factor in the analysis even though it may have some importance.

In some cases, we try to use data that were collected as surrogates for what we really needed to collect. The resulting analysis is informative only to the extent that these surrogates really reflect what they represent. For example, the nature of the inlet mixture of acetone and butyl alcohol can significantly affect the column’s performance. The column was designed for the feed to be a saturated liquid (at the mixture’s boiling point). The production logs record the feed temperature but do not record the specific concentrations of acetone and butyl alcohol in the feed stream. Those concentrations are too hard to obtain on a regular basis. In this case, inlet temperature is a surrogate for the nature of the inlet mixture. It is perfectly possible for the feed to be at the correct specific temperature and the inlet feed to be either a subcooled liquid or a mixture of liquid and vapor.

In some cases, the data collected most casually, and thus with the lowest quality, the least accuracy, and the least reliability, turn out to be very influential for explaining our response. This influence may be real, or it may be an artifact related to the inaccuracies in the data. Too many analyses reach invalid conclusions because they lend too much credence to data that were never meant to be used for the strict purposes of analysis.

Finally, the primary purpose of many analyses is to isolate the root causes underlying interesting phenomena. With historical data, these interesting phenomena may have occurred months or years before. Logs and notebooks often provide no significant insights into these root causes, and memories clearly begin to fade over time. Too often, analyses based on historical data identify interesting phenomena that go unexplained.