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History of growth and downturns
ОглавлениеOver the long term, the U.S. economy has averaged approximately 3 percent annualized real (after inflation) growth. This rate of growth has slowed to closer to 2 percent annually on average in more recent decades.
This long-term track record for growth in the U.S. economy has been great news for workers, as it has helped to keep the historic unemployment rate low. And the purchasing power of workers’ wages has increased over the decades and generations. Consider for a moment how many people have smartphones today, which are more powerful and a fraction of the cost of the first generations of personal computers.
Furthermore, the long-term growth of the U.S. economy helps to explain the terrific long-term returns from U.S. stocks. Over the past two-plus centuries, U.S. stocks have averaged annualized returns of about 9 percent, or about 6 to 7 percent after inflation.
Now, the 2 to 3 percent annualized real (after inflation) growth rate of the U.S. economy should not be interpreted to mean that the U.S. economy grows every year and at a reasonably steady rate because it doesn’t! That’s the long-term average annual growth rate, which includes some down periods — when the economy is actually shrinking — and includes some faster growth periods, which typically happen coming out of an economic downturn. See Table 2-1 for the year-by-year growth rates of the U.S. economy since 1970.
TABLE 2-1: Annual GDP Change for the United States
| Date | GDP Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | –3.5% |
| 2019 | 2.2% |
| 2018 | 3.0% |
| 2017 | 2.3% |
| 2016 | 1.7% |
| 2015 | 3.1% |
| 2014 | 2.5% |
| 2013 | 1.8% |
| 2012 | 2.2% |
| 2011 | 1.6% |
| 2010 | 2.6% |
| 2009 | –2.5% |
| 2008 | –0.1% |
| 2007 | 1.9% |
| 2006 | 2.9% |
| 2005 | 3.5% |
| 2004 | 3.8% |
| 2003 | 2.9% |
| 2002 | 1.7% |
| 2001 | 1.0% |
| 2000 | 4.1% |
| 1999 | 4.8% |
| 1998 | 4.5% |
| 1997 | 4.4% |
| 1996 | 3.8% |
| 1995 | 2.7% |
| 1994 | 4.0% |
| 1993 | 2.8% |
| 1992 | 3.5% |
| 1991 | –0.1% |
| 1990 | 1.9% |
| 1989 | 3.7% |
| 1988 | 4.2% |
| 1987 | 3.5% |
| 1986 | 3.5% |
| 1985 | 4.2% |
| 1984 | 7.2% |
| 1983 | 4.6% |
| 1982 | –1.8% |
| 1981 | 2.5% |
| 1980 | –0.3% |
| 1979 | 3.2% |
| 1978 | 5.5% |
| 1977 | 4.6% |
| 1976 | 5.4% |
| 1975 | –0.2% |
| 1974 | –0.5% |
| 1973 | 5.6% |
| 1972 | 5.3% |
| 1971 | 3.3% |
| 1970 | 0.2% |
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit research organization which came into existence in 1920, has documented U.S. economic activity back to 1802. Through 2021, the NBER data show that the United States has experienced 48 recessions — or about one per five years.
While their definition is a bit more complicated, a recession is generally defined by two consecutive quarters of declining real gross domestic output. (NBER uses a more detailed definition, which looks for a decline in employment, industrial production, real personal income, real manufacturing, and trade sales.)
