Читать книгу Spanish Flu vs Covid-19, which is the worst pandemic? - Farzana Prior - Страница 12

The Public Health Response Time was 9 days and the lockdown measures were applied for 151 days, double that of New York City, but these were not 151 consecutive days. The time to peak was 14 days (quicker than New York City) and the peak deaths were 55/100 000 (about half that of New York City), but the Total Excess Death Rate was 630/100 000 which was still greater than New York City. This confers that a quick lockdown saves lives, as was implemented in New York City.

During the recorded period Denver implemented lockdown, reversed the lockdown, and then implemented the lockdown again, and a two-peak mortality curve therefore developed. We can learn a lot from two-peak mortality curves in that when the lockdown measures are deactivated, deaths increase and when they are reactivated, then deaths decrease again. This confers that leaders should not end lockdowns too early.

While this further supports the need for lockdown measures as a critical component of the action plan to deal with a pandemic, there are a few additional lessons to be learnt. The death rate is inversely but directly related to the lockdown measures applied, meaning that the stricter the lockdown rules and the longer they are applied, the fewer the overall deaths from the pandemic.