Читать книгу Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists - Franco Taroni - Страница 44

Notice that the probability of true guilt is a subjective probability, as mentioned before (Section 1.7.4). Its value will change as evidence accumulates. Also, different people will have different values for it. The following examples, adapted from similar ones in DeGroot (1970), illustrate how probabilities may change with increasing information. The examples have several parts and each part has to be considered in turn without information from a later part.