Читать книгу Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets - Gottesman Aron - Страница 15

Financial crises throughout history were often not an isolated event geographically. This is because countries around the world are often linked in a number of ways. Furthermore, very often crises are fueled by more than one of the categories we are discussing in this chapter. Often it is the combination of several of these drivers that ultimately leads to systemic events. As one example, during the period of 1900 to 2008, there was a high correlation between the percentage of all countries experiencing a default on their external debt and those countries that suffered a banking crisis in the same year. Some potential explanations for this linkage include:

● When a developed nation experiences a banking crisis it tends to have a substantially negative impact on global growth, which hurts exports of smaller emerging market countries, making it more challenging to service external debt.

● Banking crises in large countries tend to lead to reduced lending and capital flows to less-developed nations, which can strain their debt service capacity.27

Arbitrage connects national markets; the implication of the law of one price is that the difference in the prices of identical or similar goods in various countries cannot exceed the costs of transport and trade barriers. Similarly, the security markets in the various countries are also linked, since the prices of internationally traded securities available in different national markets must be virtually identical after a conversion of prices in one currency into the equivalent in other currencies at the prevailing exchange rates. Some examples of international transmission mechanisms include: