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The reason for writing now

This book is a guide to improving Africa’s capacity for economic growth and job creation. Such a blueprint is especially needed at a time when African countries, many of them still poor, must prepare for a massive increase in population and, accordingly, the number of young people seeking employment.

We are hopeful about the prospects of African countries, but only if tough decisions are made now. The old ‘business-as-usual’ approach of governments and leaders has to change if they are to cope with Africa’s pending population boom. Reform necessitates fundamentally changing the way in which African economies work. It means being open to international trade and capital rather than aid, being reliant on enterprise rather than personalised and patronage-ridden systems, while the aim of government should be private-sector growth rather than public-sector redistribution. Underlying all of these initiatives is the imperative for a sense of urgency to create jobs before the population wave overcomes African societies.

Even though the continent enjoyed impressive economic growth rates in the 2000s of around 5 per cent, not enough has changed. For one, this growth was in great part not the result of improved governance, but rather a sharp rise in commodity prices, underpinned by soaring Chinese demand.

Now with commodity prices in decline, there is concern that many African countries did not do enough during the ‘fat’ years to reform their political- and economic-governance practices. As Warren Buffett famously observed, ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked.’

This is not about economic growth alone. Another measure of the success of African reform is in the stability of its societies. The continent has been the site of two-thirds of conflict-related deaths worldwide since 1990.1 The poor are also still with us. More than 40 per cent of Africans live in extreme poverty.2

Despite these realities, so far, it has proven difficult to change the old ways of running Africa’s economies. The inertia reflects the contemporary retreat of democracy and ‘misgovernance’ – when government works efficiently, but only for an elite.3 In this environment, the incentives for liberalising economies are outweighed by the benefits of keeping things just as they are, as elites are easily able to manage and deflect international or other disincentives designed to encourage change.

However, those leaders who, today, have the foresight and vision to make the necessary choices for change will, in the future, be renowned for the prosperity and stability that they brought to their countries. Meanwhile, those rulers who perpetuate the old ways will see the further impoverishment of their nations and their own rule threatened. The Arab Spring, when youths who perceived that they had no future overthrew leaders and destabilised countries in a matter of weeks, highlights how quickly such tensions can spill over, even into political collapse. The threat is particularly severe now that power is increasingly in the hands of individual citizens enabled by the rapid spread of mobile communications.

It seems inevitable that the number of failed states in Africa – already the largest in the world – will increase if leaders do not move to address the imminent challenges presented by the large population increases that are projected, with the concomitant suffering and chaos that accompany institutional collapse. Similarly, other critical challenges faced by African countries, including adjusting to climate change, improving the status of women and reducing inequality, can be addressed only if states grow their economies and generate more jobs. Otherwise, the demographic crisis will become all-engulfing and prevent action on anything else.

Our analysis is based on fieldwork across Africa that began 12 years ago, when the Brenthurst Foundation was established. Our book emphasises research conducted since the downturn in commodity prices that began in 2014. It uses both statistical analysis and case studies to describe the challenges to prosperity in Africa and the strategies undertaken elsewhere in the world that have been successful in reducing poverty. It takes account of the very real challenges facing government leaders across the continent as they try to make improvements in their countries. We also believe that reflecting on comparative international case studies is instructive because of the continued progress of the countries that we cite as examples. One of the starkest failings of postcolonial African governments has been their insularity. Africa’s challenges should be understood in the context of universal norms and practices, and not as isolated or unique problems. Not so long ago, after all, many Asian and Latin American countries found themselves under circumstances that were very similar to much of Africa today. Whether devising industrial policy or trying to achieve equity through growth, Africa does not have to reinvent the wheel: a lot can be learnt from others.

We have chosen to structure the book by sector, including mining, agriculture, infrastructure, services, manufacturing, planning and delivery. This sectoral analysis is important because the governance record of a country is the accumulation of a large number of decisions made in different fields of activity. It is often easier to see how state actions affect economies by examining common economic challenges across the region. The sectors that we examine here are the most important for Africa. We analyse the critical aspects of African economies from the oldest and most traditional sectors to those areas where entrepreneurs are participating in the newest forms of technology.

At the beginning of each chapter, we include a brief digest of the key steps for success, as well as the challenges and opportunities Africa’s states will experience. The concluding chapter collects all of the sectoral suggestions to provide a comprehensive blueprint for African leaders.

This structure and the solutions offered reflect the diversity of the authorship. One half of the team are long-time collaborators, Greg Mills and Jeffrey Herbst. They are joined for this project by Major General (rtd) Dickie Davis, who has had more than three decades of experience in implanting the decisions of politicians, much of it in difficult circumstances, from Bosnia to Afghanistan, and who has devoted much of his post-military career to sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, who, arguably, has more experience at the sharp end of the challenges Africa faces than any other living African.

We have benefited greatly from a two-day seminar hosted by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in August 2016, when more than 30 policymakers, academics and private-sector executives – all from Africa or with considerable experience in different parts of the continent – reviewed the manuscript and made many important observations and suggestions. They have greatly enriched our findings. Although we certainly did not all agree on everything, this intensive workshop reinforced our view of the great opportunities for significant growth and poverty alleviation that are realisable if African leaders make the necessary difficult decisions, and of the conversely dystopian futures countries face if dramatic steps are not taken now.