Читать книгу China's Rise in Mainland ASEAN - Группа авторов - Страница 13

The third section deals with current aspects of trade, investment, and external debt in selected countries that have come to cope with such issues with China. To begin with, Tuan Pham’s chapter, “The Increasing Reliance of Vietnam on China’s Economy: Causes and Impacts,” looks at economic relationships between Vietnam and China, since the mid-2000s, which have blossomed as economic exchange between the two countries have rapidly grown in almost all sectors. In between, China has become Vietnam’s biggest trading partner as well as an important destination for Vietnamese exports. As of 2017, trade volume between the two countries had reached US$93.69 billion, accounting for 22% of Vietnam’s total trade value, the highest among the ASEAN countries. However, these growing economic ties have also heightened the reliance of the Vietnamese economy on China in various sectors, from agriculture to manufacturing and services. This chapter examines the increase of such reliance, its causes, and impact on the bilateral partnership, particularly under the BRI.

Nguyễn Văn Chính and Ðinh Thị Thanh Huyền, in their chapter, “Vietnam — China Economic Cooperation: Aid or Burden?” analyze China’s foreign aid to developing as controversial affairs. Recent studies tend to suggest that flows of aid from China are not based on the need of the receiving countries but motivated by its national interest, and these flows of aid are often used as a tool to advance its political interests. A different perspective, however, believes that China’s aid is welcomed as an alternative to Western donors, particularly because it is not based on bureaucratic procedures with detailed policy conditionality. While the debate is going on, there are, however, quite a few studies that look at China’s aid from local and empirical levels. This chapter examines the scope, types, allocation, and conditions of China’s aid to Vietnam since the normalization of relationship between the two countries in 1991. The analysis in this chapter aims to explore the characteristics and nature of China’s aid as well as the impact of this aid flow to the development of Vietnam in the context of recent political and economic relations between the two countries. The findings indicate that China’s aid to Vietnam represent the political–economic cooperation between the two, based on its preferred diplomacy model G-to-G while P-to-P diplomacy was ignored until recent years. Aid flows from China have changed from “politics first” motivations to a combination of political strategies and economic gains. In its nature, China’s aid could be the convergence of interests, including political, commercial, and reputational, but it does not conform to the international standard of official development aid, rather aiming to facilitate trade and investment as well as its political strategies in Vietnam.

Somdeth Bodhisane and Thantavanh Manolom, in their chapter, “Determinants of FDI and Policies for Attracting Chinese FDI into Laos,” discuss Lao’s transition from a centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one since the second half of the 1980s. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been considered, since then, as the most important driver for developing the economy of Laos, in addition to other benefits in terms of technology transfer from multinational firms through such investments. FDI inflows into Laos have gradually been transformed into a provider of natural resources in the region, consisting of mainly energy, minerals, woods, and cash crops. From 1988 to 2016, FDI inflows from China were approximately US$5.5 billion, and China was the number one foreign investor in Laos. This chapter aims to find out determinants and policies of attracting FDI, and suggests potential investment sectors. This chapter also shows that there is no consensus or uniform determinants of FDI found and that the most common determinants are the host country’s market size and its economic prospects. In particular, resource determinants of Chinese investors in Laos are availability of natural resources, political stability, low wages, emerging middle class, and land abundance for agricultural purposes. However, several other factors are on the downside, and these need to be taken into account. Some of these are the high transport costs, slow documentary and bureaucratic process, small domestic market, and lack of local purchasing power.

Alay Phonvisay and Thantavanh Manolom, in their chapter, “The Influence of Chinese Investments in the Mining Sector in Laos: Land Concession and Concession Fees,” begin by demonstrating the important role of the mining sector in the Laos economy since the early 2000s, as it is a country with rich natural resources with more than 572 deposits and prospects across the country. More recent surveys suggest 1.5 million hectares of land concession for mining activities, which account for around 70% of the total granted land lease and concession for investment in Laos. The mining industry in Laos has generated revenue of around US$16 billion in 2016, comprising concession fees, royalties, taxes, and dividends, with 10% of the country’s labor force — which was about 245,000 people — in 2010. However, government receipts of concession fees across the country amounted to about US$27.8 million from 2010 to 2016, with Chinese, Vietnamese, and Lao mining companies combined accounting for US$21.7 million, i.e. around 80% of the total mining concession fees.

Mu Mu Theint, in her chapter, “China’s Rising Influence and Its Implications on Myanmar–Thailand Trade,” analyzes China’s trade and investment relations with Myanmar, which have become significantly important with the development of the changing economic corridor, aiming at building political connections and ensuring geopolitical and ­economic integration. The chapter also discusses the effects of China’s rising influence, which have created opportunities as well as challenges for Myanmar. However, the relaxation of political sanctions by Western and European countries has helped to somewhat reduce China’s influence, but this is still early to say. As for ASEAN, China’s increasing cooperation with Myanmar might cause the grouping to balance to a certain extent the way in which each ASEAN country deals with one another, as Myanmar has also expressed its willingness to channel its development and aid with peaceful resolution of ethnic conflicts with ASEAN, in addition to China.