Читать книгу Extreme Events and Climate Change - Группа авторов - Страница 34

The primary goal of the analysis presented in this chapter is to propose a new methodology to estimate the impact of heat waves on agricultural labor productivity and, hence, on the overall performance of the agricultural sector. Unlike previous studies, our approach uses an economic production framework to estimate the impact of heat on production. In addition, previous studies using an economic framework have analyzed the impact of heat on indoor labor, not outdoor labor as in this study. We also diverge from previous studies in that we incorporate the seasonality component of harvesting activities in the agricultural sector. Using this expanded methodological framework, we were able to estimate the impact of extreme heat levels on harvesting productivity on two labor‐intensive crops.

Our results show that heat has a negative impact on labor productivity with significant final impacts on agricultural output. Reduction in labor productivity shows via increases in specific crop labor requirements. The consequences of the increase in crop labor requirements are twofold. On the health front, if the increase in crop labor requirements means workers stay in the fields for longer periods, then they are exposed to heat conditions longer. Second, if farmers are required to hire more workers, then this means that a larger number of workers are exposed to adverse conditions. In either case, workers suffer negative health consequences due to heat. The second aspect of the impact of heat is more obvious: increases in crop labor requirements result in higher production costs, which could translate into higher food prices, reduced margins, or both. We note that the agricultural labor force is made up of mostly Mexican and Central American workers, often at a disadvantage in terms of legal status and subject to abuse and neglect in terms of complying with regulations that mitigate heat impacts on worker’s health. Medical research has taken important steps in documenting health impacts of heat occurrence. Our chapter makes important contributions to the analysis of the economic impact of heat on agricultural labor. That said, more research is need on this field.

An important caveat of the modeling approach used in the analysis is that the results are highly aggregated at the regional (county) level out of necessity, because the data did not support a crop‐by‐county approach. On a more positive note, the results enable analyzing the impact of heat on each crop and, thus, enables planners and others to look at specific market conditions for particular segments of the agricultural sector. In addition, because the results are crop specific and incorporating mitigating measures to reduce the impact of heat on labor can be implemented in specific ways that would not have been possible if we had been able to complete the analysis by county without specifying the crop.