After Engagement

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Группа авторов. After Engagement

Contents

Acknowledgments

ONE. Rivalry and Security in a New Era for US-China Relations. JACQUES DELISLE. AVERY GOLDSTEIN

A RELATIONSHIP CREATED AND TRANSFORMED: NORMALIZATION AND THE ERA OF ENGAGEMENT

THE NEGATIVE TURN IN US-CHINA RELATIONS

A Shift Delayed

An Adversarial Relationship Emerges

A CHANGING DISTRIBUTION OF POWER

BEYOND CORE SECURITY ISSUES: RETHINKING DEPENDENCE AND INTERDEPENDENCE

DOMESTIC POLITICS AND BILATERAL DISCORD

TOWARD IDEATIONAL CONFLICT?

ASSESSING CONTEMPORARY US-CHINA RELATIONS: INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND RELATED ISSUES

PROSPECTS FOR US-CHINA RELATIONS

Notes

TWO. Assessing the Dangers of Conflict. The Sources and Consequences of Deepening US-China Competition. CHARLES L. GLASER

CHINA’S MORE COMPETITIVE AND ASSERTIVE BEHAVIOR

US POLICY AS A DRIVER OF CHINA’S POLICY

CONFLICTING INTERESTS

Why the Nature of States’ Conflicting Interests Matters

Conflicting Interests between the United States and China

EXPLAINING CHINA’S INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE/ASSERTIVE BEHAVIOR

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF THE US-CHINA RELATIONSHIP AND US POLICY

Notes

THREE. China’s Contribution to the US-China Security Dilemma. ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON

SECURITY DILEMMAS AS SOCIALIZATION PROCESSES

INDICATORS OF A SECURITY DILEMMA

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

THREAT MEMES AND NARRATIVES

Threats of (Mostly Material) Loss or Harm

Threats of Contamination and Subversion

SELF AS DEFENSIVE; OTHER AS DISINGENUOUS

CONCLUSION

Notes

FOUR. An Ideological Contest in US-China Relations? Assessing China’s Defense of Autocracy. JESSICA CHEN WEISS

A “SYSTEMS COMPETITION” IN US-CHINA RELATIONS?

A WORLD SAFE FOR AUTOCRACY? ASSESSING CHINA’S INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS AND INFLUENCE

Leading by Example—Or Exporting a China Model?

Providing Institutional Support

Providing Economic and Technological Assistance

Shaping Overseas Opinion and the Corrosion of Democratic Freedoms

CONCLUSION

Notes

FIVE. Stormy Seas. The South China Sea in US-China Relations. M. TAYLOR FRAVEL. KACIE MIURA

A BRIEF REVIEW OF KEY EVENTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

CHINA’S VIEWS ON INITIAL US INVOLVEMENT (2009–2014)

US VIEWS OF CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS (2014–2020)

Elite Discourse

China and the South China Sea in US Official Statements

CHINA RESPONDS TO US BEHAVIOR (2014–2020)

CONCLUSION

Notes

SIX. Japan and US-China Strategic Competition. In from the Beginning. MICHAEL J. GREEN

TRAPS, DILEMMAS, AND THE ROOTS OF THE CURRENT JAPAN-CHINA-US STRATEGIC TRIANGLE

ABE’S GRAND STRATEGY AND SINO-US STRATEGIC COMPETITION

JAPAN AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S CHINA STRATEGY

Diplomatic Competition

Ideational Competition

Military

ECONOMIC COMPETITION

CONCLUSION: WILL JAPAN MODERATE US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION?

Notes

SEVEN. No Space to Hedge. US-China Competition and Its Impact on Korea. VICTOR CHA

HISTORICAL STRUCTURAL FORCES

US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION

PROPOSITIONS FOR KOREAN STRATEGIC CHOICE

SOUTH KOREAN HEDGING

NORTH KOREAN BALANCING

REVERSING THE CAUSAL ARROW?

SOUTH KOREAN TILT?

THE ROAD AHEAD: ECONOMIC NATIONAL SECURITY

CONCLUSION

Notes

EIGHT. The Taiwan Issue in US-China Relations. Sliding into a Security Dilemma? SCOTT L. KASTNER

TAIWAN AS A CONTINUED FLASH POINT FOR ARMED CONFLICT

US AND PRC DETERRENCE DILEMMAS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT

The US Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict while Maintaining Stable Relations with Beijing

The PRC Dilemma: Deterring Taiwan Independence while Seeking Peaceful Unification

Summary

A LOOMING SECURITY DILEMMA IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT?

CONCLUSIONS: LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE

Notes

NINE. US-China Relations and Chinese Military Modernization. PHILLIP C. SAUNDERS

CHINESE INTERESTS AND PLA MILITARY MISSIONS

THE LONG ROAD TO A MODERN PLA

PLA REORGANIZATION AND CAPABILITIES

REGIONAL MILITARY MISSIONS

PROTECTING CHINA’S OVERSEAS INTERESTS

US-CHINA MILITARY COMPETITION

CONCLUSION

Notes

TEN. Globalized Innovation and Great Power Competition. The US-China Tech Clash. ELSA B. KANIA. ADAM SEGAL

GLOBALIZATION OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

ILLICIT GLOBALIZATION

THE GLOBALIZATION OF US S&T

INTERDEPENDENCE IN INNOVATION

CHANGING PERCEPTIONS

CHINA’S INNOVATION IMPERATIVE

THE UNITED STATES RESPONDS

EMERGING IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNO-STRATEGIC COMPETITION

Notes

ELEVEN. China’s Belt and Road Initiative. JAMES REILLY

ACADEMIC ADVENTURES ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD

ECONOMISTS JOIN THE GREAT GAME

BRANDING THE BRI

ORCHESTRATING THE BRI

CHINA’S COSTLY AMBITIONS

BEIJING’S REVERSE COURSE

BRI IN THE COVID ERA

CONCLUSION: A MODEST PROPOSAL

Notes

Contributors

Index

Отрывок из книги

AFTER ENGAGEMENT

Dilemmas in US-China Security Relations

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China responded in kind, with its own tariffs on imports from the United States. Chinese levies and shifts in purchases away from US suppliers focused on politically salient targets, such as Midwestern farmers, who had been crucial to Trump’s electoral victory. Beijing also flexed its administrative muscle to clarify that, aside from tariffs, it had other cards it could play, especially actions against US firms doing business in China. The PRC’s accelerating efforts to reduce its dependence on US suppliers in response to the trade war effectively, if unintentionally, made the decoupling sought by some in Washington more plausible. In sum, the long-prevailing belief that deepening economic interdependence was good for both parties and provided crucial ballast to a vital US-China relationship was unraveling.

Washington increasingly viewed Beijing’s economic engagement with other countries in similarly dark terms. The Trump administration, and other US critics, were skeptical about the BRI, Xi Jinping’s signature international economic policy, which pushes outbound investment in infrastructure and support for economic development across much of Asia and into Europe. They claimed the BRI was a nefarious strategy to increase Chinese political influence, using dubious tactics they labeled “debt trap diplomacy.”52

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