Читать книгу Germany's Freefall - Hermann Dr. Rochholz - Страница 9

Imagination

The human imagination is interesting when it comes to evaluating facts: Much can be imagined, much not. One can imagine traveling to the nearest star in a spaceship. Star Trek provided a taste of this. But this is not possible. The same applies when it comes to exceeding the speed of light.

In contrast, one cannot imagine the distance of one light year, although the entire solar system is only one light day in diameter. Even one light day (25,900,000,000 km) is unimaginable. This order of magnitude is completely normal to an astronomer. This does not mean, however, that an astronomer can imagine these distances.

Nobody can imagine a war either, especially since most Germans have never held a weapon in their hands that would provide an indication of the destructive power of a single projectile. To them, war and the terrible suffering it causes is something abstract and not imaginable: A few years ago, a journalist on a TV panel discussion “demanded” a “military intervention” (the positive “framing” term for “war” (see chapter Framing)) in Russia. Mrs. Krohne-Schmalz (a Moscow correspondent) had made this comment with a frozen demeanor. Refusing military service, it seems, makes it easier to call for war. Paradoxical, isn’t it?

When the Bundeswehr (German armed forces) was sent on a mission to Afghanistan, one could not “imagine” that mines would be used there. It's certainly traumatic to see the consequences of this lack of imagination, and frustrating to know that it could have been avoided.

The same applies to power blackouts. If these were to happen, even electric garage doors wouldn’t function, making it difficult to leave your house by car. First, your telephone would fail (the Internet is dead), and, after two to four hours, cell phone masts would then start to fail. Failing traffic lights would lead to a series of accidents, but no ambulance could be called. Production lines would stand still and machines stop producing expensive parts. Milking machines would not work, cattle would die, and oil heaters would need electricity to pump heating oil. If the power were to fail any longer, these same heaters would burst. This is because a blackout would first occur when it’s cold, as more electricity is needed then. This was the case in South America in June 2019 because it was winter there then and many people heat only with electricity. Hospitals are only able to operate using emergency generators (their real problem is the lack of pure water caused by the lack of electricity). Lifts and cable cars would get stuck. However, no rescue helicopters could be refueled anymore because the kerosene pumps are electric. Since the radio has failed, they wouldn’t be allowed to take off anyway. Therefore, one must assume that people would lose their lives indirectly.

“DER SPIEGEL Online History” reported on the 1977 [41] blackout in New York, where looters and arsonists had roamed the city. This can be expected in social hotspots.⁵

The above depicts a few of the consequences involved, not to stir up fear, but to get a practical idea of the consequences. A risk exists and one should consider whether or not to take it. In case of a nuclear accident, this (sensibly) goes without saying, but (senselessly) not in the case of a blackout.

This chapter argues that things should be evaluated completely regardless whether they can be imagined or not since people tend to evaluate things as “wrong” or “not possible” because they cannot imagine them.

One should abandon this approach because

it leaves no room for a neutral discussion.

Consequences

One can conclude from the sum of these “trifling matters” in all areas that the shit will hit the German fan.

Iceland had gone through a national bankruptcy that went relatively smoothly because Icelanders have no energy problems due to their hot springs. They grow bananas in greenhouses.

In the event of this kind of a collapse of the energy supply, no catch-all system is available, as society isn’t prepared for it. Similar to the just-in-time delivery approach used by the automotive companies: When a small parts supplier fails to deliver a single important screw, all of the assembly lines will come to a standstill. This case isn’t foreseen in the system.

When it comes to energy, the system in Germany is therefore vulnerable, but not so in Iceland. That’s why the effects are difficult to foresee in their entirety.