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In this chapter, we'll try to understand change through:

• the VUCA framework

• the three factors of people, places and technology that can combine to create the perfect storm

• the three-stage framework.

In his classic nonfiction book The Perfect Storm, Sebastian Junger tells the story of the fishing boat the Andrea Gail and her crew. Lost at sea in 1991, they were caught off the north-east coast of the USA in a super-storm created by an incredibly rare combination of three weather systems. At its peak, the storm had wind strengths in excess of 120 kilometres per hour, and it generated some of the largest waves ever recorded.

Few people took the weather warnings from the National Weather Service seriously. It was only once the true magnitude of the storm became apparent that people started reacting, with thousands along the eastern seaboard evacuating their homes.

Other than a few small pieces of debris, no trace of the Andrea Gail or her six crewmen was ever found.

This ‘perfect storm' killed another seven people and created widespread destruction on much of the eastern coastline, causing an estimated damage bill of $200 million.

It may seem strange to call something so destructive perfect but, in weather terms, this combination of conditions is so rare it has to be seen as miraculous. Sure, two weather systems occasionally merge together to create powerful storms, but three systems merging together? It was unprecedented. Negativity does not necessarily diminish perfection.

The three forces

Today a similar perfect storm, albeit a metaphorical one, is brewing. Just like the real perfect storm that took the Andrea Gail and her crew to a watery grave, a never-before-seen combination of three forces is occurring to create a perfect storm, the likes of which the world has never seen before.

What are these three forces? We will get to them in a minute. But first, it is crucial to understand that the impact of this perfect storm will be felt all over the globe. The old world of business will never be the same again.

Instead, the storm is giving birth to a new world order.

Speaking about the post–World War II era, cultural anthropologist Margaret Mead once wrote, ‘All of us who grew up before the war are immigrants in time, immigrants from an earlier world, living in an age essentially different from anything we knew before'. We are again immigrants in time, as our perfect storm is reshaping society, business and institutional thinking.

Everything from how we play and how we learn to how we work and how we govern – in other words, how we live our lives – is being profoundly changed.

The three forces that have combined to form this perfect storm are:

1. people

2. places

3. technology.

The capacity for people to connect with one another to communicate, share, learn and trade is increasing quickly and easily. This is happening in both virtual and real places through technology's rapid growth.

What does this mean?

It means the world has become flatter, more transparent and more accessible than ever before. It also means that there are more opportunities for cultural misunderstanding, misalignment and clashes that would not have happened when isolation was more prevalent. And it means that many of the organisations that supply society's daily needs are in danger of disruption and failure. We are seeing increasing evidence of this misunderstanding and misalignment of cultures, and the disruptive impacts on business, on a daily basis.

So when did this perfect storm start?

It's been brewing for quite some time, but the signals were too weak for our business and societal radars to pick up. 9/11 is a perfect example of what we thought of as an isolated incident; but then came the Bali Bombings, followed by similar events in Madrid, London, Mumbai and Paris. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 seemed like a once-in-a-century financial crash – and yet nearly a decade later we are still dealing with its fallout, and talk of another, even larger, debt-caused crisis persists.

These events all involved people, places and technology rapidly moving together to create a sense of unease and urgency, sending us racing for metaphorical cover.

Like thunderclouds, these events were early indicators of the approaching perfect storm.

Storm outriders

In the mountains, we call early indicators of unrest storm outriders. Days before any other sign of approaching weather, clear blue skies gradually become streaked with thin, wispy strands of white or grey cirrus cloud, which are formed by very strong winds blowing up high. Those of us who have been around the mountains for long enough know these storm outriders are a sign of things to come: the weather will start deteriorating within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Simply put, they are a warning:

Get off the mountain, and get off fast, or the weather will take its own measures to remove you.

What we are seeing now across the globe are storm outriders. Strong winds of change are starting to blow our way, and events – which may at first seem disjointed and disparate – are starting to show connections involving these three key forces of people, places and technology. This perfect storm is about to try to take us off the mountain by whatever means.

And, just like Cyclone Tracy and Hurricane Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, this storm's got a name. It's called VUCA (pronounced voo-ka).

VUCA

VUCA stands for:

• volatility

• uncertainty

• complexity

• ambiguity.

It is perhaps the best acronym that encapsulates the impact this perfect storm is starting to unleash upon the globe.

The acronym has its origins in the US military. Devised as a description of the post–Cold War landscape and first referenced in print in 1991, its use became more frequent in the military post-9/11, particularly at military academies, as a way of articulating to young officer candidates the new world in which the US military would be operating. (The US military has several other acronyms that are perhaps equally applicable to our situation, but they are less polite and probably shouldn't feature in this book.)

The VUCA acronym may be military in origin, but it is becoming increasingly relevant to business and broader society as we get closer to the full impact of the perfect storm.

But beyond its status in the popular business vernacular, what does it actually mean?

VUCA describes the nature of the change that the world is currently facing: its parameters describe how change will affect us on a daily basis. We can already see it happening; the business landscape is becoming more volatile and uncertain. It is more ambiguous, especially as the rate of technological innovation increases day by day. This technological innovation is leading to increased interconnectedness across the globe, which is in turn resulting in increased complexity.

VUCA is change

In a phenomenon known as change fatigue, we've all become a bit jaded when it comes to ‘change', especially at work. Organisational change. Change management. Change management consultants. Yawn.

We've all experienced ‘change initiatives' in the workplace before, but let me ask you something: when you've completed the ‘initiative', have you felt that any meaningful change has actually been initiated?

Even one of the world's leading experts on change management, Harvard Business School professor John Kotter, acknowledges that many of the organisational change initiatives he has been involved in have failed. If the world's leading expert can't get it right, what hope is there for the rest of us?