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Copyright © 1999 John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa

All rights reserved

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Hammond, John S., 1937-

Smart choices : a practical guide to making better decisions /

John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa.

p. cm.

Includes index.

ISBN 0-87584-857-5 (alk. paper)

1. Decision-making. I. Keeney, Ralph L., 1944- . II. Raiffa,

Howard, 1924- . III. Title.

BF448.H35 1999

153.8'3—dc21 98-8118

CIP

Parts of Chapters 5 and 6 were previously published as “Even Swaps: A Rational Method for Making Trade-offs” in Harvard Business Review (March–April 1998). Parts of Chapter 10 were previously published as “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” in Harvard Business Review (September–October 1998).

ISBN 978-1-63369-104-9

eISBN 978-1-63369-105-6

The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.49–1984.