Читать книгу Synthesis Gas - James Speight G., James G. Speight - Страница 23

Crude oil economics is, as might be expected if the peak oil theory is true, dominated by the so-called occurrence of the remaining reserves that are to be depleted in the very near future. While there may be varied volatility in the price of crude oil, when there is a belief that the price in the future will be higher than the price for immediate delivery there will be a flurry of economic activity in the form of the purchase of short-term contracts. This, in turn, leads to a so-called equilibrium price level that is invariable higher than the previous price level which can influence producers to defer production activities in anticipation of a rise in price (Fleming, 2000). In actual fact, the price circle is indeed a vicious circle insofar as one arc of the price circle affects the other arcs (of the price circle) leading to what might be called economic anarchy. This anarchy might easily be laid at the feet of the peak oil theorists who base their theory on faulty or uncertain data and speculation. Moreover, the economic principles, which explain how a market economy works, tend to break down when applied to natural resources such as oil. In fact, there are two ways in which the principles of market economics do not apply to crude oil: (i) the current price of oil has virtually no influence on the rate at which it is discovered and (ii) the rules of supply and demand do not always hold, and (iii) a rise in the price of crude oil does not always lead to an increase in production.

While current high oil prices may encourage development and adoption of alternatives to oil, if high oil prices are not sustained, efforts to develop and adopt alternatives may fall by the wayside. The high oil prices and fears of running out of oil in the 1970s and early 1980s encouraged investments in alternative energy sources (including synthetic fuels made from coal and oil shale) but when oil prices decreased, investments in these alternatives became uneconomic. In fact, the development of renewable energy systems needs to be supported by decisive, well-coordinated action by governments, in sustained multi-decade programs. Many oil-consuming nations are moving to alternate fuel development rather than be faced with a destabilizing energy gap.