Читать книгу Foreign Exchange: The Complete Deal - James McDowell. Sharpe - Страница 16

Fixed exchange rates are not just about numbers. They signal intent for co-ordinating economic behaviour and financial discipline. At best they unite the economic performance and policies of nations. In the case of Europe and the USA they represent political integration. Floating is more a statement of self interest which of late has become polarised between the West and Asia. When the industrialised nations went over to floating in 1973 it was not because flexible exchange rates were regarded as a better system but simply because the system of fixed rates had temporarily collapsed.

Floating certainly has its advocates who would argue that it has coped well with oil crises and recession, and provided a more benign adjustment mechanism. This is important when set against the backdrop of the electorate holding governments increasingly accountable for economic performance. It has, however, seen the demise of financial discipline and has led to overshooting and undershooting of exchange prices, which is its major flaw. This has prompted active government intervention, although the primary stated ambition has been to stabilise disorderly markets rather than to create artificial exchange rates. The effectiveness of this intervention has not been firmly established.

During the period in question foreign exchange dealing has seen enormous changes. The rapid changes in communications and computing power has forged the 24-hour dealing market and the speculator; this pair is often blamed for chaotic markets. In reality 24-hour dealing and speculators are the symptom of the problem not the problem itself.

Increasingly wild fluctuations in the exchange rates, which is the situation in the 21st century, have little attraction in the medium term, both in terms of trade and asset allocation. The recent lessons from Europe, discussed in this chapter, are that to achieve stability the politicians will have to learn to live with financial discipline and take responsibility for managing electoral expectations.