Читать книгу Foreign Exchange: The Complete Deal - James McDowell. Sharpe - Страница 29

Exchange rates become increasingly important in recessions as governments (in the absence of inflation constraints) look to combat deflationary pressures by promoting a weak currency. An insight to this thinking comes from the statement from Thomas Jordan, member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank on 25 the September 2009:

The Swiss franc plays a key role in the development of the Swiss economy. Through the competitiveness of our export pricing, it impacts on our exports and consequently affects the business cycle. Via import prices, it has a direct impact on consumer prices. In addition, the Swiss franc has been – and still is – a factor in the success of the Swiss financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) takes the exchange rate into account in its monetary policy although it does not normally exert any direct influence on it. In the past, it has only been in rare emergency situations that the SNB intervened to directly influence exchange rate developments. However, from March 2009, the appreciation of the Swiss franc induced by safe haven effects, in an exceptionally difficult economic situation entailing deflation risks, prompted the SNB to prevent an appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro by purchasing foreign currency.

For Switzerland, trade with the EU is very important to the economy. Exports to the EU as a percentage of total exports are 60%, while exports to the EU as a percentage of GDP are 23%. Therefore, the level of EUR/CHF is critical.

In 2009 and 2010 ongoing weakness of the euro and the reinstatement of the Swiss franc as a primary safe haven currency prompted action on a number of occasions. On 12 March 2009 the SNB bought at 1.4790 to move the price to 1.5340. This price movement can be seen in Figure 2.1.