Читать книгу Currency Trading For Dummies - Kathleen Brooks - Страница 41

As much as we like to think of the forex market as the be-all and end-all of financial trading markets, it doesn’t exist in a vacuum. You may even have heard of some of these other markets: gold, oil, stocks, and bonds.

There’s a fair amount of noise and misinformation about the supposed interrelationship among these markets and currencies or individual currency pairs. To be sure, you can always find a correlation between two different markets over some period of time, even if it’s only zero (meaning the two markets aren’t correlated at all).

Be very careful about getting caught up in the supposed correlations between the forex market and other financial markets. Even when a high degree of correlation is found (meaning the two markets move in tandem or inversely to each other), it’s probably over the long term (months or years) and offers little information about how the two markets will correlate in the short term (minutes, hours, and days). The other point to consider is that even if two markets have been correlated in the period, you have no guarantee that the correlation will continue to exist now or into the future. For example, depending on when you survey gold and the U.S. dollar, which supposedly have a strong negative correlation, you may find a correlation coefficient of as much as –0.8 (a solidly negative correlation) or as low as –0.2 (very close to a zero correlation, meaning that the two are virtually noncorrelated).

Always keep in mind that all the various financial markets are markets in their own right and function according to their own internal dynamics based on data, news, positioning, and sentiment. Will markets occasionally overlap and display varying degrees of correlation? Of course, and it’s always important to be aware of what’s going on in other financial markets. But it’s also essential to view each market in its own perspective and to trade each market individually.

With that rather lengthy disclaimer in mind, the following sections look at some of the other key financial markets and show what conclusions we can draw for currency trading.