Читать книгу The Bitcoin Big Bang - Kelly Brian - Страница 7

When I see a bubble, I buy that bubble, because that is how I make money.

– George Soros

Fad, scheme, scam, tulipmania, and bubble are all terms I have used to describe Bitcoin. The majority of my professional money management career has been spent in the currency markets, and as a so-called expert I was convinced Bitcoin was nothing more than a speculative bubble. It seemed impossible that a string of numbers backed by nothing and without an army could ever meet the accepted definition of a currency as a plausible medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account. More than once, I confidently declared that Bitcoin was nothing more than “Tulipmania 2.0,” a reference to the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600s. Of course, the only thing I knew about Bitcoin was that people were calling it a digital currency, a term that was new to me. Unfortunately, not even ignorance could stop me from bellowing on national television that Bitcoin would not last.

I had first read about Bitcoin in 2011 while browsing my usual currency websites looking for investment ideas. In the late spring of 2011, the price of bitcoin had reached parity with the U.S. dollar, and by July, one bitcoin was worth $31. Any investment that has a 3,000 percent increase in value will attract a lot of attention, but two decades working on Wall Street has taught me not only to be skeptical but to automatically dismiss these investments as unsustainable bubbles.

Bitcoin appeared to be a quirky little project hallucinated by a cryptic computer programmer who was disillusioned with the post-financial-crisis world. It was interesting, but I did not think there was any money to be made, so I promptly forgot about this diversion and continued blissfully unaware that a revolution was under way. It was not until the autumn of 2013 that Bitcoin would reappear on my radar.

In October 2013, I was consumed with research on the end of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The so-called taper had roiled financial markets, and I needed a template to guide my investment decisions. Since many believed that Bitcoin was a direct response to quantitative easing, the two concepts had become twinned, especially on the Internet. Through my research, I began to notice the price of bitcoin was once again on the rise. After stagnating below $31, the price of bitcoin had spent the past year climbing to $150.

As the price climbed, the media attention grew, particularly on the business channel CNBC, on which I appeared. If there is one thing I have learned from being on television, it is “if it bleeds, it leads,” and Bitcoin was as close as business news gets to a bleeding headline. Not only was the price rising rapidly, but the clandestine creator made the story fascinating. Most importantly, people were interested. Perhaps we all sensed that something remarkable was happening and we all craved knowledge. Information becomes a valuable commodity during times of uncertainty.

Despite my deep skepticism, I was haunted by a quote from famed investor George Soros. Mr. Soros was talking about gold as the ultimate bubble when he was quoted by The Australian as saying, “When I see a bubble, I buy that bubble, because that's how I make money.” Well, this was my bubble and it had been unknowingly stalking me for two years. I could no longer ignore the palpable euphoria. I wanted in – no, I needed in.