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Kenneth Fisher. Beat the Crowd
Fisher Investments Press
Preface
CHAPTER 1. Your Brain-Training Guide
Wall Street’s Contrarian Contradiction
The Curmudgeon’s Conundrum
There Is Always a But
Why Most Investors Are Mostly Wrong Most of the Time
The First Rule of True Contrarianism
The All-Seeing Market
Different, Not Opposite
The Right Frame of Mind
Check Your Ego
CHAPTER 2. For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls
Wall Street’s Useless/Useful Fascination With Calendars
Professional Groupthink
How the Contrarian Uses Professional Forecasts
Even the Best Fall Sometimes
How to Beat the Street
CHAPTER 3. Dracula and the Four Horsemen of the Media Apocalypse
The Media’s Flawed Financial Eyesight
Dracula Around the Corner
Looking for Growth in All the Wrong Places
The Magic Indicator
War – What Is It Good For?
Don’t Be a Cow, Be a Contrarian
CHAPTER 4. Not in the Next 30 Months
Baby Boomer Bomb?
What About Social Security and Medicare?
But What if the “Lost Generation” Stays Lost?
What About Debt?
But What if Debt Causes Runaway Inflation?
But What if America Stops Innovating?
But What About Global Warming?
What About Income Inequality?
What if the Dollar Loses Its Place as the World’s Reserve Currency?
What the Markets Know
CHAPTER 5. Take a Safari With Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau
How the Elephant Got Its Tusks
Dumbo, Gross Margins and Other High-Flying Elephants
When Good News Dresses Up as Bad News
The Yield Curve Curveball
When Elephants Attack
A Brief History of Tragedy
When Textbooks Lie
It Can’t Be an Elephant If …
CHAPTER 6. The Chapter You’ll Love to Hate
Step 1: Ditch Your Biases
My Guy Is Best, Your Guy Is Worst and Other Unhelpful Opinions
A Magical Elephant Named Gridlock
(Not) Just a Bill Sittin’ on Capitol Hill
That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen
What’s Worse Than a Politician?
Why the Government Already Made the Next Crisis Worse
CHAPTER 7. Put Those Textbooks Away
Don’t Toss Your Textbooks – But Know Their Limitations!
The First Commandment: P/Es Aren’t Predictive
The CAPEd Crusader Is No Superhero
Small Beats All?
Fancy Formulas and Other Academic Kryptonite
Theory Isn’t Reality
If Not School, Where?
CHAPTER 8. Throw Away This Book!
Miley Cyrus, Justin Bieber and Pop Star Economists
Classics Are Classic for a Reason
Philosophy and Econ 101
How to Learn From the Legends
Those Who Forget History
Classics in the Twenty-First Century
CHAPTER 9. When Miley Cyrus Meets Ben Graham: Misadventures in Behavioral Finance
Where It All Began
The Beginnings of Behavioral Finance’s Drift
When Academics Met Capitalism and Marketing
Behavioral Finance and Tactical Positioning
Recency Bias and Sentiment
How to Gain a Tactical Advantage With Behavioral Finance
A Section for Stock Pickers
Know When to Say When
Getting Back to Self-Control
CHAPTER 10. The Negative Myopic Media
How to Use the News
What the Media Always Misses
In Technology (and Capitalism) We Trust
Parting Thoughts
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True confession: I didn’t want to write a preface for this book. It’s too darned long already, and I wanted to spare you having to flip one more page. But alas, the powers that be require one – who knew!
Maybe that’s fitting, because this is a book I didn’t think I’d write. I was happy with 10 books. Ten is a round number, and plenty. I didn’t think the world needed another Ken Fisher book. But ideas happen! An idea struck during a conversation with my former Wiley editor, Laura Gachko (still with Wiley, no longer saddled with my silly nonsense) and my co-author, Elisabeth Dellinger – one thing led to another, and next I knew, I was at it again. Eleven is a fun number, too.
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Some investors use old saws and rules of thumb as a guide – the “playbook.” Here, too, the approach might seem fine. The playbook is supposedly full of time-tested wisdom! If it didn’t work, it wouldn’t be in the playbook! But the more you base decisions on maxims, proverbs, and things everyone just knows, the less likely you are to think independently – and the less likely to have true contrarian views.
The playbook also doesn’t pass a basic logic test – one of the true contrarian’s favorite tools, as we’ll see in Chapter 4. It includes familiar adages, like “buy on the dips” – when stocks are on sale, snap ’em up at a bargain! But that’s also when the playbook would tell you to “cut your losses” – get out of that dog before it goes to zero, and get into something that’s actually going up. One page tells you to “let your profits run” – if it’s going up, stay in! It’ll keep going! Yet the next page tells you to “take some profits off the table.” Which do you choose? Both sound intuitive! If a stock is running, you want to let it run. But you know it could easily run off a cliff, plummeting with legs churning like Wile E. Coyote, so pocketing some of those gains seems wise! The playbook doesn’t tell you which play to run.
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