Читать книгу Stakeholder Capitalism - Klaus Schwab - Страница 18

There might have been no better person to piece together the puzzle of the world economy today than Simon Kuznets, a Russian-born¹ American economist, who died in 1985.

It may seem odd at first that a man who passed away in the mid-1980s would be so relevant to today's global economic challenges, but I believe the issues we are facing today may not have become so problematic had we better heeded the lessons of this Nobel Prize–winning economist.

Indeed, Kuznets warned more than 80 years ago that gross domestic product (GDP) was a poor tool for economic policymaking. Ironically, he had helped pioneer the very concept of GDP a few years earlier and had a hand in its becoming the holy grail of economic development. He also warned that his own Kuznets curve, which showed that income inequality dropped as an economy developed, was based on “fragile data,”² meaning data from a relatively brief period of the post-war Western economic miracle that took place in the 1950s. If the period of his study turned out to be an anomaly, the theory of this curve would be disproven. Kuznets also never approved of the curve's off-shoot, the so-called environmental Kuznets curve, which asserted countries would also see a drop in the environmental harm they produced as they reached a certain state of development.

Today we live with the consequences of not having been more rigorous in our analyses or having been too dogmatic in our beliefs. GDP growth has become an all-consuming goal, and at the same time, it has stalled. Our economies have never been so developed, yet inequality has rarely been worse. And instead of seeing a drop in environmental pollution, as one might have hoped, we are in the midst of a global environmental crisis.

That we are facing this myriad of economic crises may well be Kuznets’ curse. It is the ultimate “I told you so” of an oft misunderstood economist and forms the root of the feeling of betrayal people have toward their leaders. But before we get deeper into this curse, let's examine who exactly Simon Kuznets was and find out what people remembered him for.