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How we tend to plan for the future
ОглавлениеPlanning has a built-in limitation: we always plan based on what's in our heads right now. Our experience. Our starting point. Our current understanding.
We think we're constructing a scenario for the future—imagining what will be important, what will work, what will be meaningful years from now. But if you look at this concept more broadly, you realize: we're simply using our current mindset and understanding of what's achievable today.
In reality, we can't imagine the future. We can only imagine an improved version of the present.
Bear with me for a second – I'm going to look at this question from a completely different angle.
Let's talk about how we design cars. We're currently developing technologies to make our current cars drive themselves. Waymo's cars are "regular cars" with steering wheels, simply controlled by computers instead of human hands. Google-owned Waymo is a camera-based, self-driving car.
This is our "vision of the future," based on today's foundation. We have cars with steering wheels, so we're adding cameras that monitor the surroundings, calculate risks, and calculate routes in their intelligent systems so they can use that steering wheel and drive themselves, without any driver input.
But what will the real future be like? It might not even have a steering wheel. The car will be designed from the ground up as an autonomous vehicle. No steering wheel. No pedals. No controls for a human driver, who won't be needed.
We can't imagine such a car yet because we're still thinking in terms of "a car with a robot driver" instead of "a car as a robot."