Читать книгу The Energy World is Flat - Lacalle Daniel - Страница 11

In 2012, the price of crude oil in North America was almost 10 times more expensive than natural gas in energy equivalent terms. Never before had the ratio between crude oil and natural gas been so wide.

The reason for such extreme divergence is that there is no direct mechanism of short-term substitution between them. As discussed, crude oil is mostly used for transportation, and natural gas for power generation and residential and industrial uses.

But how about the longer term? Is there a mechanism for substitution? Why continue to rely on Middle East oil? Why continue to feed our cars with petrol? Or with corn-based ethanol? Why not use natural gas for transportation? Exactly!

In North America, the abundance of natural gas reserves, a surge in production, and a steep price discount are incentivizing consumers to develop and implement technologies that use less oil and more natural gas.

The substitution is starting to be evident and will have major implications for the crude oil market.

I am amused when I hear people say that crude oil is untouchable or that the shale revolution will only impact North America. The revolution is global and has deep implications across energy sectors with many winners and losers, OPEC among them.