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CHAPTER 1

BASIS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISION

I REMEMBER my father saying about a man who was a great financial success, that he was a “shrewd businessman.” I heard him say on another occasion, that another friend of his was lucky in business; “everything he touches turns into gold.” These two evaluations are typical of my father’s and grandfather’s generation. Even now there are executives, some in large corporations, who make marketing decisions on hunches or conjecture.

The “scientific” approach to marketing is still not used by many organizations. Many manufacturers, who have adopted scientific production methods and scientifically organized production management, still do not plan marketing programs on the basis of facts. Comparatively few executives of small businesses make marketing forecasts on the basis of scientifically controlled market research. The scientific approach to marketing is still new.

Many of the large corporations use various types of marketing research on which they rely and use as a basis for executive judgment. Most executives in large corporations use research on sales of competitive brands, test markets and some other types of check points in planning their marketing programs.

A well-planned marketing program has a specific goal and an operating budget. A marketing plan incorporates an estimate of future sales based on some specific measures of consumer acceptance and marketing conditions.

Economic conditions are not static. Often competitive action could not have been anticipated and given consideration in the initial plan. For either of these two reasons, sales results may not be in accordance with the goals or estimated sales performance. But in a complex market such as ours, management must have marketing plans with specific goals and budgets and operational controls with frequent and regular evaluations of sales results.

If marketing conditions are changed, either because of a general change in our economy or because of the action of competition, the predetermined plan has to be changed on the basis of the new conditions. Whether conditions have changed sufficiently to revise the original plan or whether a special effort should be made to reach the original goal to meet a marketing threat is in the realm of management judgment and decision.

Some executives, particularly heads of small businesses, take this position: “What’s the use of making an elaborate marketing plan, if it has to be changed every three months?” The answer, of course, is that if you don’t have a plan of operations, if you don’t have an operating budget, you are not equipped to make quick changes in the marketing operation to meet the new conditions. You can compare the new marketing conditions with the old ones, if you have a map, a chart or a clear picture of the old conditions. You can have no accurate evaluation of new marketing conditions without having an evaluation of the market for which you originally prepared yourself.

Management can manage efficiently only if it has a clear picture of the interdependent operations of planning and checking, evaluation and control. Management has to provide the initiative and guidance for the planning. It has to evaluate the sales results in the light of the original plan and to control the adjustment to new marketing conditions.

Big business has to operate in this scientific manner. Small businesses have a much greater chance of success or of becoming bigger businesses by using scientific planning and operation. To meet the conditions of a highly competitive market, management has to use a scientific approach to the marketing problems, as well as to the manufacturing operations.

Management’s function is qualitative in each area and in each role. A business will be most successful if the planning is based not merely on any marketing information, but on the most reliable kind of marketing facts. It is management that has to decide which of the available fact gathering methods or agencies have validity and are the most reliable.

There are many market research organizations whose main activities consist of auditing markets, geographic areas, size, character, income level and educational backgrounds of potential consumers. Not all organizations providing this type of information use the same methods of auditing. Some are more reliable than others. Management has to decide which of the available market auditing organizations will provide the best information for market planning.

In the field of predetermining how consumers will react to a new product or to an improvement of an old one, executive judgment is put to a great test. This is because the techniques used in determining consumer attitudes and measuring consumer behavior in relation to the product are very complex. Some of the consumer reaction measuring methods are totally foreign to the business world.

Research techniques for measuring what motivates shoppers were developed outside of the marketing field. Purchase behavior is psychological. Motivations of shoppers are not totally or even basically rational and, therefore, the normal, direct procedures for measuring objective factors are not valid.

Often, the rational aspects of a product have no appeal to consumers. The functional or practical character does not always motivate consumers to buy the product. Management must find devices that will appeal to the potential consumers or users of the product. Emotional appeals, not rational ones, have to be used. Management must find the kind of appeals that will motivate people to buy the product. For this, executives have to go outside of the traditional marketing area.

Special types of research have shown executives of insurance companies that they can sell much more insurance by selling “security in old age” and “security of family’’ instead of an insurance policy. Cosmetics manufacturers have learned from research, directly or indirectly, that they can increase their volume of sales greatly by selling “beauty,’’ instead of cold cream, lipstick or face powder. A well known soap manufacturing company found that it had increased sales greatly by selling “purity,” instead of just plain soap.

Emotional appeals did not originate in the production plant. The behavioral sciences are the source of such sales appeals. Because the behavioral sciences are new and are not in tune with traditional concepts, management has to be very careful in making decisions on which of the techniques or procedures are valid for solving a particular consumer appeal problem.

In a complex and highly competitive marketing situation as exists today, a mere announcement of a new product is not sufficient. Persuasion must be used. A great variety of appeals are devised by marketing and advertising specialists. Special methods and techniques have to be used for determining which of these appeals is the most effective in motivating people to buy the product. Executive judgment comes into play in making a choice of an agency, or techniques that are to be used, for measuring the relative effectiveness of several appeals to consumers.

Traditionally, entire marketing programs have been based on the personal judgment of the executive. Executive decision is still here. It is still the guiding hand of every marketing program. Now the decision is on which of the research techniques should be used, in order to have maximum scientific control in marketing as well as in production.

Consumers make decisions in the market place, sometimes consciously and frequently unconsciously. Consumers are generally not aware of what motivates them to buy one brand instead of another. However, executives have to make their decisions consciously when they are confronted with diverse avenues of action. The decisions of executives or managers have an effect on the behavior or actions of their subordinates. In other words, the decisions of executives have an effect not only on their own behavior, but also on the actions of others. Such decisions cannot be made unconsciously or subjectively in a functioning business.

In making a decision, the executive must be aware of action alternatives. He must evaluate them before he can make a decision. In evaluating the alternatives he may rely on his personal experience. He may depend on sketchy information that he had once received and which still lingers in his memory. He may consult his subordinates, each of whom also has a slight knowledge about the problem, or he may rely on information derived from thorough research of one or more kinds, from one or more sources. There is evidence that executives in successful business organizations generally make their marketing decisions on the basis of reliable research.

For most modem, up-to-date executives, market research provides support in each phase of market planning. One type of market research is designed for the purpose of evaluating the potential market and predicting the rate of development of the market. A second is used for predicting consumer attitudes toward a specific product design or product character. A third is employed to determine the best marketing theme or the most effective selling strategy. A fourth is used for measuring the production capacity of the organization. And research is also used for determining what will motivate personnel—sales personnel, production personnel, shipping personnel, office personnel, etc.

Qualitative research is used where it is necessary to learn about the kind of action or kind of product. Purely quantitative research is used to get a measure of how much action or how much of a product there should be in a given time or place.

The modern executive uses “scientific” methods as a guide in making decisions. Modern, up-to-date management is “scientific management.” Modern, up-to-date executives practice “scientific marketing.” This means that business decisions are made by managers on what is considered to be factual support.

“Scientific management,” say some, is not as exact as “true” science. It is not based on absolute principles. However, this should not make us hesitate to use the term “scientific” in relation to business. Modern physicists do not consider physics absolute. Classical physics is as obsolete now as is nineteenth century industry. Einstein, Bohr, Planck, Heisenberg and others have discovered elements in nature that are not in the structure of Newton’s physics. There are no absolutes in atomic physics.

I should at this point call attention to one kind of decision making practiced in many corporations which is not scientifically sound, yet is not based on the subjective opinion or limited knowledge of the manager or a subordinate. I have in mind the committee method of decision making. Sometimes this is called the democratic method. It is also known as the brain picking method or brain storming method. This often operates on the assumption that a number of uninformed people can arrive at a better decision than one uninformed person.

Decision making in a marketing program is frequently and crucially in the area of communication, in finding an effective means of persuading potential consumers to buy the particular product or brand.

Persuading means influencing opinions or affecting attitudes by means of communication. It means not only informing, but educating, plus motivating. It means affecting the hearts as well as the minds of people.

To persuade a person, the message has to reach his emotions, not merely his sense of logic. If the message contradicts an individual’s opinions, beliefs or attitudes, the individual will reject the message or will have no interest in it.

Many advertising men fail to realize that a sales message delivered is not the same as a sales message received.

A communication about a product is one thing. But people paying attention to it, believing it and being motivated by it is another matter entirely.

An unconvincing message is either rejected outright or is modified to fit the opinion of the person who sees it or hears it. For a message to be effective it must fit a goal of the individual who receives the message, it must satisfy an emotional need. The message must motivate the individual.

There is no longer any question among serious students of psychology whether people are rational or irrational. We know that individuals are motivated by both emotional and rational factors. A message has to have emotional appeal and at the same time possess rational or practical elements.

A number of questions have to be answered in planning any kind of message on which many thousands of dollars will be spent. The questions are particularly hard to answer if the message is of the persuasion type. Is the message addressed in the most effective way? Is the timing the best? Does it appeal to the particular people it is supposed to reach? Is it easily recalled? Is it confused by people with another message from another source? Does it impress only those who agree with the message or does it have a favorable effect on people who ordinarily would not agree with it?

For a message to fail in persuading, it does not necessarily have to antagonize people. Indifference to the message means that the communication is weak.

Managers can, and some do, use research to get answers to these questions. Some research discloses the kind of people and how many are reached by the message. Other research shows how many are favorably affected by the communication, how many are unfavorably affected and how many indifferent to it.

However, research can play its role only after there is something to test. First, creative individuals have to compose the message. Generally, a number of approaches are used; several themes are tried. The message is composed in many forms. Executives have to decide which of these forms, in which of the several ways, the communication will be most effective.

Executives use some basic principles in nuking such decisions. One device used by advertising executives is the “principle of association,” which is demonstrated in the use of a pretty girl for selling a soft drink, or a rugged individual for selling cigarettes. It is known that most people, men and women, like to look at pretty girls. If a bottle of the particular brand of beverage is shown next to the girl, those who look at the girl will automatically see the brand of beverage. The “principle of association” becomes still stronger when the message communicates the idea that this pretty girl drinks this particular beverage.

The “association principle” operates in the same way in selling cigarettes by associating the brand of cigarettes with an appealing, rugged, he-man character. This interesting man not only attracts people to the cigarettes, but the message communicates that men such as he, smoke this brand of cigarettes.

The “association principle” is understood by advertising and public relations men and women. However, executives of the communications media still have questions that they cannot answer. They do not know what type of girl will appeal to the greatest number of people or what type will appeal to the particular individuals for whom the message is intended. They do not know exactly what kind of a man will have greatest appeal to the largest group. If the executives decide to use a rugged character as the symbol, they must delineate this character. They need a specific image of the character.

This is where research is again called upon. Creative individuals produce images, photographs, paintings and drawings of sportsmen, cowboys, sailors and other rugged types. Research is called upon to measure the relative effectiveness of these images.

Before management is ready to consider the character of the advertising or the nature of the communication about the product, it has to make sure that the product itself presents a favorable image. Here too, the “principle of association” is used. Orange juice is served with Castor oil to children by mothers in order to make the Castor oil acceptable. The same principle is used in marketing. An instrument that may suggest danger to people is encased in streamlined form and pleasing color. The image of smooth form and appealing color overshadows the image of danger that people might have.

Here too, management has to get answers to a number of questions. What kind of form or styling will have the most favorable effect on the greatest number of potential buyers of the product? What color will have the most favorable effect and motivate the greatest number of people to want the product? The right kind of research can provide the answers to these questions.

The present-day executive must be a problem-solver. He has to approach each problem without getting emotionally involved. He must make decisions on the basis of objective information.

An executive can find solutions to problems. He can find new ways for solving new problems if he is aware that naturally or emotionally he is likely to be indifferent to or even hostile to a new idea, that is, to a concept that is not within the realm of his experience. If he recognizes this, he will guard himself against it.

The modern executive is aware that new ideas are not necessarily good ideas. He uses modern research for determining whether the idea is good or bad. Modern research is “scientific research.” Scientific means controlled.

A physicist cannot tell in what manner or how far a ball will roll on the street. He can determine how a specific ball will behave in a specific place, under specific circumstances or conditions. The physicist can obtain the answers to an unknown if all the other factors are known. In other words, he must test the unknown under controlled conditions.

Managers of consumer goods manufacturing companies are generally consumer oriented. When planning to introduce a new product, the executives give primary attention to the potential consumers. Some executives want research that will show people’s wants, that is, whether they want such a product or a particular form of the product. Others want to know whether people will accept the product, although they do not care about why they accept it. Still others are interested in finding out not only what people will accept or what they want, but also why they accept it or want it.

Some marketing executives operate on the assumption that people do not know what they want. To these executives, marketing means creating wants, that is, making people want what they have to sell. Before air conditioners were introduced to the market, people did not want air conditioners. The wants were created by making air conditioners available and by demonstrating the advantages of air conditioners.

However, people did want to be cool on hot days. The first question to be answered was not whether people wanted air conditioners, but whether they wanted to be cool in the hot weather season. The want to be cool existed. In a competitive market the marketer had to create a want for his particular brand or for his special way of keeping cool.

From a purely rational point of view, most people don’t always want what they need and they don’t always need what they want. For example, a woman may need a fur coat to keep warm so she won’t catch cold in near zero weather, but she wants a mink stole. She knows the mink stole will not keep her warm, but she wants it for other reasons, psychological reasons which are motivating.

There are biological needs and social needs; practical needs and psychological needs. All the various needs are basic wants. The marketer does not create the wants, he merely satisfies them. The marketer generally has to convince people that his product or brand satisfies their wants.

People are not always conscious of their wants. Because they are not always aware of what they actually want, they cannot tell you. Special techniques and procedures have to be used to get people to reveal their wants without their realizing that they are expressing their desires. They may have guilt feelings about their wishes.

Basically, human wants are all about the same. We all want comfort, love and happiness. Individual wants are conditioned by environmental and social factors.

There are still many executives who assume that all human beings have exactly the same wants. There are many managers who operate on the assumption that if the products are good for them, they are good for others. “I like the product, I want it,” he says to himself, “therefore, most people will want it.” Such an executive is not aware that his social position, his financial status, his education, perhaps his background make his reactions to an object totally different from the reactions of an average person. Such an executive is, of course, not in the class of “scientific management.”

The executives who are in the class of “scientific management” make judgments on the basis of objective information only. I have already outlined the various types of research that are used for gathering specific types of information.

Some of the necessary information is of a purely quantitative nature. Research techniques for gathering such information are well established. Marketing problems in which people’s attitudes are involved and in which motivating factors have to be evaluated are not in the realm of quantitative research techniques.

Attitudes, multiple motivations, conflicting wishes and unconscious reactions are not in the sphere of mere head counting. Psychological needs, cultural influences, and social pressures cannot be verbalized by consumers.

Research that records what people say does not reveal their true wants. Only the type of research that discloses natural, uninhibited reactions, real feelings, true attitudes and preferences in which self-interest is involved can be considered valid. This type of research did not develop in the climate of the business world but in the area of the behavioral sciences.

The basic principles and research techniques were borrowed from the field of psychology, particularly from psychoanalysis and from Gestalt psychology. The techniques have been modified and adapted to marketing needs. These techniques are now highly developed. They have been used successfully for solving marketing problems for about fifteen years. They provide a basis for management decision.

Why People Buy

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