Читать книгу The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here - Lynda Gratton, Линда Граттон - Страница 6

Introduction

Predicting The Future Of Work

Why now?

What we are witnessing now is a break with the past as significant as that in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries when parts of the world began the long process of industrialisation. What we know as work – what we do, where we do it, how we work and when we work – has already changed fundamentally in the past when the Industrial Revolution transformed work, beginning in Britain between the late eighteenth (around 1760) and early nineteenth centuries (around 1830).¹ It seems likely that the period we are moving into will see as fundamental a transformation – although of course the outcome is much less clear.

To get an idea of the velocity of the changes that can sweep away so many assumptions, consider the period between 1760 and 1830. Within a period of less than 100 years – that’s only four generations – there occurred a fundamental and irreversible shift which changed the experiences of every worker in the UK, and was to be felt across the world as industrialisation spread first to Europe and then to North America. Before that time work – whether it be ploughing the fields, weaving of wool, blowing of glass or throwing of pottery – was an artisanal activity engaged with largely in the home, using long-held and meticulously developed craft skills. From the late eighteenth century onwards these craft skills began to be transformed as the manufacturing sector was developed and began to transcend the limits of artisanal production.

Looking back with hindsight and a gap of over 200 years, we can learn much from the trajectory and speed of revolutions in working lives. The Industrial Revolution began gradually and relatively slowly to change working lives. The economic growth throughout this period was little more than 0.5% per person per year, and while we now think of the ‘dark satanic mills’ as being the key motif of this time, in fact textile production often constituted less than 6% of total economic output within Britain. In reality, the growth in total productivity during this apparent revolution was in fact slow by modern standards.² This was an evolution rather than a revolution; gradual rather than progressing through breakthrough changes; and based on continual and small changes rather than a series of massive innovations. For those living through this period it would not have been seen as a time of immense change, and it is only when the broad sweep of history is viewed that the extent of change can be put into perspective.

The core of any revolution in the way that work gets done is inevitably changes in energy. When true innovations occur in the production of goods or services, they are the result of a capacity to unearth new sources of energy or to apply existing sources in a radically more efficient way. The first Industrial Revolution, although it had an impact on working lives, was not an energy revolution. The movement that took place at this time, from farming to fabrication, was not inherently innovative; the artisan remained the primary source of productive activity. That’s reflected in the modest growth rates throughout the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries.

The real revolution in the working lives of people began to occur in the mid to late nineteenth century, when British scientists, unlike their European contemporaries, began to be experimental. It was this culture of innovation, with the ideas of organisational and technological restructuring rapidly picked up by entrepreneurs and industrialists, that transformed working lives. It enabled a new class of practical scientists to emerge and to excel.

This was the emergence of the engineering class and of a culture of innovation.³ The real shift in work came with a change in energy – the power of steam that was rapidly integrated into the embryonic factory system. This transformation came as the consequence of a new energy source in the shape of steam, with a new spirit of enterprise and innovation. It was only when engine science combined with an emerging engineering culture that a new source of energy – steam – integrated into the productive process.

In the fifty years that followed the closing decades of the nineteenth century, a true revolution in work had occurred. The emergence of an engineering class signalled the professionalisation of practical science and the institutional pursuit of innovation. This also saw the transformation of the working lives of people across Britain and later the developed world. Work became more regimented, more specialised. The workplace and the work schedule became more compartmentalised and hierarchical.

This was the embryonic stage of Fordism – the rise of the engineer as the organiser of economic activity, and the decline of the artisan. The layout of a factory was as important as the technology within it, embodying as it did the power structure of the organisation. In this second Industrial Revolution, engineers redesigned factories to make employees fit into the production line. By doing so workers lost their autonomy, becoming simply as interchangeable as the parts they created.

As we look to the world of work we now inhabit, and the decades to come, what we are seeing is the potential reverse of this trend, from hierarchy and interchangeable, general skills to the reinstatement of horizontal collaboration and more specialised mastery.

What is clear is that the current scale of transformation is as great as any witnessed in the past. Again it is powered by an energy transformation (in this case computing power); again going through periods of slower and then more rapid change; and again depending on a new set of skills and an emerging class of skilled people.⁴

However, as we shall see, this time the impact of the Industrial Revolution is global rather than local, the speed ever more accelerated and the disconnect with the past likely to be as great. It is clear that our world is at the apex of an enormously creative and innovative shift that will result in profound changes to the everyday lives of people across the world.

Patching together the future

Faced with the magnitude of these changes, how do we both make sense of them, and indeed ensure that we and those we care about are able to do the very best they can over the coming decades? I’ve used the story of my mother’s quilt-making as a metaphor for the task that we are all faced with as we prepare for the future. As I attempt to make sense of the future for myself – in a sense to stitch together the pieces that are important to me – I cannot help but be occasionally overwhelmed with the sheer complexity of this endeavour, very much as I suspect my mother must have felt at the beginning of her craft. I wonder if indeed it is worthwhile to try and make any predictions about our working life in 2020, 2025 or beyond, as far out as 2050? However, what has spurred me on is that, the more I have learnt, the more I have come to believe that while this endeavour is indeed complex it is also incredibly worthwhile. It is worthwhile because you and I, and those whom we care about, need some sort of realistic picture of what the future might bring in order to make choices and sound decisions.

Think about it this way: I am now 55 and could expect to live to my mid-eighties – perhaps even into my mid-nineties. My two sons are currently aged 16 and 19 and they could well live more than a century. If I work into my seventies, then that’s 2025, and if my sons do the same they will be working into 2060. Take a moment now to make the same time period calculations for yourself and others who are important to you.

Of course, all the decisions about your working life don’t need to be made now. In the case of my children, for example, I expect they will adapt and change and morph over the next 50 years – just as I have done through my own working career. However, wouldn’t it be useful to have some picture of the future, storylines of future lives, scenarios of choice to guide and give inspiration? We need these, not only for our personal or local near-term futures, but also for remoter global futures.

Just because my children, you and I ‘need’ realistic pictures of the future, it does not mean of course that we can have them. Predictions about future technical and social developments are notoriously unreliable – to an extent that has led some to propose that we do away altogether with prediction in our planning and preparation for the future. Yet, while the methodological problems of such forecasting are certainly very significant, I believe that doing away with prediction altogether is misguided.⁵

The reason it is so important now at least to attempt to paint a realistic picture of the future is that we can no longer imagine the future simply by extrapolating from the past. I cannot imagine my future working life by drawing a direct line with the working life of my father – any more than I could expect my sons to predict their working lives from mine. I am not suggesting that everything will shift. Of course some aspects of work will remain the same; one of the challenges, in fact, is actually knowing what will remain stable. As the science fiction writer William Gibson famously remarked, ‘the future is here – just unevenly distributed’.⁶

It has not always been so difficult to simply extrapolate from the past. For much of the ages of mankind, perceptions of daily lives were envisaged – with very few exceptions – as changeless in their material, technological, and economic conditions. This transformed fundamentally from the eighteenth century with the advent of the Industrial Revolution, when what was seen as hitherto untamable forces of nature could be controlled through the appliance of science and rationality.⁷

The past six generations have amounted to the most rapid and profound change mankind has experienced in its 5,000 years of recorded history.⁸ If the world economy continues to grow at the same pace as in the last half-century, then by the time my children are the same age as me – in 2050 – the world will be seven times richer than it is today, world population could be over 9 billion, and average wealth would also increase dramatically.⁹

What is important about my sons’ questions about their future work is that they are living in an age in which they face a schism with the past of the same magnitude as that previously seen in the late nineteenth century. The drivers of that change were the development of coal and steam power. This time round the change is not the result of a single force, but rather the subtle combination of five forces – the needs of a low-carbon economy, rapid advances in technology, increasing globalisation, profound changes in longevity and demography, and important societal changes that together will fundamentally transform much of what we take for granted about work.

It is not just our day-to-day working conditions and habits that will change so dramatically. What will also change is our working consciousness, just as the industrial age changed the working consciousness of our predecessors. The Industrial Revolution brought a mass market for goods, and with it a rewiring of the human brain towards an increasing desire for consumption, and the acquisition of wealth and property. The question we face now is how the working consciousness of current and future workers will be further transformed in the age of technology and globalisation we are entering.

What is inevitable is that, for younger people, their work will change perhaps unrecognisably – and those of us already in the workforce will be employed in ways we can hardly imagine. This new wave of change will, like those that have gone before them, build on what has been accomplished in the past, made up of a gradual process with some possibly unpredictable major waves. It is about increasing globalisation, industry and technology. But, as in the past, these changes will also bring something that is qualitatively different – new industries based around renewable energy sources, new developments of the internet, and indeed new ways to think about work.¹⁰

The reality is that predicting the future is a matter of degree, and different aspects of the future of work can be predicted with varying degrees of reliability and precision. For example, I can predict with some accuracy that computers will become faster, materials will become stronger and medicine will cure more diseases so that we will live longer. Other aspects of the future, such as migration flows, global temperatures and government policy, are much less predictable. It’s more difficult to predict, for example, how the way we will relate to each other will change, or how our aspirations will evolve.

If I think about my own future and that of my children, and factor in the uncertainty we face, then of course it’s a good idea to develop plans that are flexible, and to pursue ideas that are robust under a wide range of contingencies. In other words, it is wise to develop coping strategies in the face of uncertainty. However, what is also important is to strive to improve the accuracy of our beliefs about the future. This is crucial because, as I will show, there might well be traps that we are walking towards that could by avoided with foresight, or opportunities we could reach much sooner if we could see them further in advance.

Knowing something about the future helps us to prepare for our future, it influences the advice we give others, and could have a fundamental impact on the choices that we, our family and friends, our community and our company decide to make; about the competencies we decide to develop, the communities and networks on which we focus our attention, or the companies and organisations with which we choose to be associated.

The Future of Work Research Consortium

The challenge is that even with my own three decades of knowledge about work I find the future of work still fiendishly difficult to predict. That’s why, by way of preparation, I created a research consortium designed to tap into ideas and knowledge from across the world. The research takes place every year – beginning in 2009 and progressing to more global and diverse groups every subsequent year.

Each year, my research team and I begin by identifying the five forces that will most impact on the future of work (these are technology; globalisation; demography and longevity; society; and natural resources); we then go about amassing the hard facts for each of these five forces. These hard facts for each of the five forces are then presented to members of the research consortium. This consortium is perhaps one of the most fascinating experiments ever conducted between management, academics and executives. In a sense it creates a ‘wise crowd’ of people. In 2009, for example, more than 200 people participated. They were members of more than 21 companies from around the world including Absa (the South African bank), Nokia, Nomura, Tata Consulting Group (in India), Thomson Reuters and the Singapore Government’s Ministry of Manpower, together with two not-for-profit organisations, Save the Children and World Vision. In 2010 the number of participating companies had risen to 45, with over 15 from Asia including SingTel in Singapore and Wipro, Infosys and Mahindra & Mahindra from India, and Cisco and Manpower from the USA.

The research began in earnest in November 2009, at the London Business School. At this point we presented the hard facts of the five forces and asked executives to construct storylines of a day-in-the-life of people working in 2025 on the basis of what they had heard. We then went on to repeat this exercise with many more people in Singapore and India. The storylines that began to emerge became the blueprints for the stories I will tell later in the book. These are important because, while they are works of fiction, it is through these descriptions of possible everyday life that we are able to imagine the interplay between different ideas and knowledge. These storylines of a day-in-the-life in 2025 are not, of course, forecasts. What they portray are ways of seeing the future, and of assembling different versions of the future. They are crucial because in them we can begin to see just how much the future is full of possibilities.

Once the research team and consortium members had developed the storylines, they took the initial conversations about the hard facts and storylines back to their own companies. Over the following months they brought back the thoughts from their wider community, and from more than 30 countries. At this point we were able to work together virtually in an elaborate shared portal, and also to discuss the emerging ideas in monthly virtual web-based seminars. We followed this up later with a series of workshops in Europe and Asia. At the same time I tested out some of my initial thoughts through a weekly blog, http:// www.lyndagrattonfutureofwork. It is these ideas, insights and anxieties that became stitched into the storyline narratives and brought depth to the conversation. They are also the basis of the personal reflections that you will come across in the debate that follows.

The paths to the future

As we looked more closely at the future, what became increasingly clear was that in fact there is not one but many possible paths to the future. It is certainly possible for each one of us to construct a path into the future that simply accentuates the negatives of the five forces. This becomes a future of isolation, fragmentation, exclusion and narcissism. This is the Default Future in which the five forces have outpaced the possibilities of taking any action. In these storylines we see people who may have been very successful in one aspect of their life, but who have failed to take positive action around an important issue or have only taken actions that are straightforward and seemed easy to take. In the Default Future no one is prepared to work together to take cohesive action or to change the status quo. In this future, dealing with the current problems takes place without consistency or cohesion, and events outpace actions.

There is also a future where the positive aspects of the five forces are harnessed to create a more crafted outcome. These are career and life stories in which collaboration plays a key role, where choice and wisdom are exercised, and actions create a more balanced way of working. In these stories of a Crafted Future people are experimenting with ways of working, learning fast from each other, and rapidly adopting good ideas. These are storylines where the forces that transform work could result in the possibility – the promise, even – of a better future. It is the future that can emerge when people actively make decisions and wise choices, and are able to face up to the consequences of these choices. It is a future in which people can work more harmoniously with others, where they can become more valued and masterful, and where the different parts of a working life can be integrated in a more authentic way.

The storylines within the two paths capture possibilities; they are a way for us to explore the future, and indeed construct our own future. A word of warning: these stories are not in any sense mechanical forecasts of what will be. Instead they are based on the recognition that each one of us holds beliefs and makes choices that can lead down different paths; they reveal different possible futures that are both plausible and challenging.

Taking the right path: the shifts

Each one of us would want to choose the Crafted Future rather than succumb to the Default Future. But how do we ensure we are on the right path? The journey that I went through, and the journey I am inviting you to take, will make you question your mental map of the future, just as it has for me. You and I already have a mental map of the future – that’s what has been driving the decisions we have already taken, and the choices we have already made. The question is: is this the right mental map, and are you on the right path?

In understanding what is the right path, it is crucial to have as much information and knowledge as possible about how the future will emerge. My research team and I have understood this deeply and will present it to you as the stories unfold. It seems to me that the storylines, hard facts and scenarios demand that we re-examine our assumptions, and ask three key questions:

* What are the potential milestones or events that could particularly affect me and those around me?

* What are the most significant factors that will influence my working life, and how could these play out?

* Therefore, what should I be doing over the coming five years to ensure I am on the right path to creating a future-proofed career, particularly in view of the turbulent times ahead?

My aim in this book is clear. It is written to support you as you develop your own point of view about the future – and your own path to creating a future-proofed working life. To do this you will have to understand the hard facts with as much depth as possible; to play through the possible scenarios and storylines to understand what they mean to you; while at the same time really being aware of the aspects of your specific context that will shape the choices you have. Only then can you look hard at your mental models and assumptions of the future and construct a path that will ensure your working life is robust, purposeful and valuable.

So, in creating a future-proofed working life, what are the assumptions that will need to be questioned, and what are the implications for how we live our future working lives? I am predicting that there are three shifts in assumptions which each one of us will have to make in order to craft a meaningful and valuable working life over the coming two decades.

First, our assumptions that general skills will be valuable has to be questioned. It seems clear to me that in a joined-up world where potentially 5 billion people have access to the worldwide Cloud, the age of the generalist is over. Instead, my prediction for the future is that you will need what I call ‘serial mastery’ to add real value. That has got crucial implications for understanding what will be valuable skills and competencies in the future, for developing deep mastery in these areas, and yet being able to move into other areas of mastery through sliding and morphing. It also has implications for an increasingly invisible world, where self-marketing and creating credentials will be key.

Second, our assumptions about the role of individualism and competitiveness as a foundation for creating great working lives and careers have to be questioned. In a world that could become increasingly fragmented and isolated, I believe that connectivity, collaboration and networks will be central. These networks could be the group that support you in complex tasks; it could be the crowd of diverse people who are able to be the basis of ideas and inspiration; it could even be the intimate, warm and loving relationships that will be at the heart of your capacity to regenerate and remain balanced. What is crucial here is that – in a world that becomes more and more virtual – strong, diverse, emotional relationships cannot be taken for granted, they have to be shaped and crafted.

Finally, as I consider the five forces that will shape our working lives over the coming two decades, and see how the storylines could play out, I am struck by the need to think hard about the type of working life to which we aspire. Do we follow the old assumptions of continuously going head first for consumption and quantity? Or is it now time to think hard about trade-offs and to focus more on the production and quality of our experiences and the balance of our lives, rather than simply the voraciousness of our consumption?

It is possible for each one of us to construct a very clear view of the challenges we face, and many of the trade-offs we will have to consider. Of course, our own future, and indeed the future of those we care about, is essentially unknowable. But that does not mean that we leave it to chance. I am convinced that we can prepare for the future in a way that increases the possibilities of success. We can do this by really understanding the five forces that will change our world. We can prepare by constructing storylines of possible futures that we can use as a basis for making choices and understanding consequences. Finally, we can prepare for the future by acknowledging that some of our most dearly held assumptions are misplaced and that we will be required to make some fundamental shifts in how we think and act our way into our future working lives. By doing this we are ensuring we are better equipped to construct a working life that excites us, brings us pleasure and creates worth for others and ourselves.