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CONTENTS

Оглавление

Foreword

STABILIZATION OF THE MONETARY UNIT—FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF THEORY (1923)

Introduction

CHAPTER I The Outcome of Inflation

1 Monetary Depreciation

2 Undesired Consequences

3 Effect on Interest Rates

4 The Run from Money

5 Effect of Speculation

6 Final Phases

7 Greater Importance of Money to a Modern Economy

CHAPTER II The Emancipation of Monetary Value from the Influence of Government

1 Stop Presses and Credit Expansion

2 Relationship of Monetary Unit to World Money—Gold

3 Trend of Depreciation

CHAPTER III The Return to Gold

1 Eminence of Gold

2 Sufficiency of Available Gold

CHAPTER IV The Money Relation

1 Victory and Inflation

2 Establishing Gold “Ratio”

CHAPTER V Comments on the “Balance of Payments” Doctrine

1 Refined Quantity Theory of Money

2 Purchasing Power Parity

3 Foreign Exchange Rates

4 Foreign Exchange Regulations

CHAPTER VI The Inflationist Argument

1 Substitute for Taxes

2 Financing Unpopular Expenditures

3 War Reparations

4 The Alternatives

5 The Government’s Dilemma

CHAPTER VII The New Monetary System

1 First Steps

2 Market Interest Rates

CHAPTER VIII The Ideological Meaning of Reform

1 The Ideological Conflict

Appendix. Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange Rates

MONETARY STABILIZATION AND CYCLICAL POLICY (1928)

Preface

PART I Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

CHAPTER I The Problem

1 “Stable Value” Money

2 Recent Proposals

CHAPTER II The Gold Standard

1 The Demand for Money

2 Economizing on Money

3 Interest on “Idle” Reserves

4 Gold Still Money

CHAPTER III The “Manipulation” of the Gold Standard

1 Monetary Policy and Purchasing Power of Gold

2 Changes in Purchasing Power of Gold

CHAPTER IV “Measuring” Changes in the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

1 Imaginary Constructions

2 Index Numbers

CHAPTER V Fisher’s Stabilization Plan

1 Political Problem

2 Multiple Commodity Standard

3 Price Premium

4 Changes in Wealth and Income

5 Uncompensatable Changes

CHAPTER VI Goods-induced and Cash-induced Changes in the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

1 The Inherent Instability of Market Ratios

2 The Misplaced Partiality to Debtors

CHAPTER VII The Goal of Monetary Policy

1 Liberalism and the Gold Standard

2 “Pure” Gold Standard Disregarded

3 The Index Standard

PART II Cyclical Policy to Eliminate Economic Fluctuations

CHAPTER I Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit and Elimination of the Trade Cycle

1 Currency School’s Contribution

2 Early Trade Cycle Theories

3 The Circulation Credit Theory

CHAPTER II Circulation Credit Theory

1 The Banking School Fallacy

2 Early Effects of Credit Expansion

3 Inevitable Effects of Credit Expansion on Interest Rates

4 The Price Premium

5 Malinvestment of Available Capital Goods

6 “Forced Savings”

7 A Habit-forming Policy

8 The Inevitable Crisis and Cycle

CHAPTER III The Reappearance of Cycles

1 Metallic Standard Fluctuations

2 Infrequent Recurrences of Paper Money Inflations

3 The Cyclical Process of Credit Expansions

4 The Mania for Lower Interest Rates

5 Free Banking

6 Government Intervention in Banking

7 Intervention No Remedy

CHAPTER IV The Crisis Policy of the Currency School

1 The Inadequacy of the Currency School

2 “Booms” Favored

CHAPTER V Modern Cyclical Policy

1 Pre–World War I Policy

2 Post–World War I Policies

3 Empirical Studies

4 Arbitrary Political Decisions

5 Sound Theory Essential

CHAPTER VI Control of the Money Market

1 International Competition or Cooperation

2 “Boom” Promotion Problems

3 Drive for Tighter Controls

CHAPTER VII Business Forecasting for Cyclical Policy and the Businessman

1 Contributions of Business Cycle Research

2 Difficulties of Precise Prediction

CHAPTER VIII The Aims and Method of Cyclical Policy

1 Revised Currency School Theory

2 “Price Level” Stabilization

3 International Complications

4 The Future

THE CAUSES OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS (1931)

CHAPTER I The Nature and Role of the Market

1 The Marxian “Anarchy of Production” Myth

2 The Role and Rule of Consumers

3 Production for Consumption

4 The Perniciousness of a “Producers’ Policy”

CHAPTER II Cyclical Changes in Business Conditions

1 Role of Interest Rates

2 The Sequel of Credit Expansion

CHAPTER III The Present Crisis

A. Unemployment

1 The Market Wage Rate Process

2 The Labor Union Wage Rate Concept

3 The Cause of Unemployment

4 The Remedy for Mass Unemployment

5 The Effects of Government Intervention

6 The Process of Progress

B. Price Declines and Price Supports

1 The Subsidization of Surpluses

2 The Need for Readjustments

C. Tax Policy

1 The Anti-capitalistic Mentality

D. Gold Production

1 The Decline in Prices

2 Inflation as a “Remedy”

CHAPTER IV Is There a Way Out?

1 The Cause of Our Difficulties

2 The Unwanted Solution

THE CURRENT STATUS OF BUSINESS CYCLE RESEARCH AND ITS PROSPECTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE (1933)

1 The Acceptance of the Circulation Credit Theory of Business Cycles

2 The Popularity of Low Interest Rates

3 The Popularity of Labor Union Policy

4 The Effect of Lower than Unhampered Market Interest Rates

5 The Questionable Fear of Declining Prices

THE TRADE CYCLE AND CREDIT EXPANSION: THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHEAP MONEY (1946)

1 Introductory Remarks

2 The Unpopularity of Interest

3 The Two Classes of Credit

4 The Function of Prices, Wage Rates and Interest Rates

5 The Effects of Politically Lowered Interest Rates

6 The Inevitable Ending

Index

On the Manipulation of Money and Credit

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