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ISIL in Iraq

ISIL recognizes the importance of controlling vital infrastructure in the battle to establish territorial control. In 2014 it temporarily closed the gates of the Fallujah Dam on the Euphrates, flooding farmland in an attempt to create a protective barrier for its forces, and also reducing the water supply to downstream, mainly Shiite, cities. It adopted a similar tactic in June 2015 in Ramadi. The brief control by ISIL of the huge Mosul Dam on the Tigris in August 2014 was a grave cause for concern. But although capturing dams gives ISIL a degree of power, in reality managing vast volumes of continually renewing water in a way that does not adversely impact on ISIL-controlled territory is a challenge.

Kaveri River, India

Karnataka and Tamil Nadu States are obliged to share the waters of the Kaveri River. After a 50-year agreement ended in 1974, upstream Karnataka ceased its unwilling co-operation. Tamil Nadu’s agricultural production depends on large-volume releases, but in a drought year, farmers in Karnataka become desperate and resolutely oppose the loss of “their” water. The government of India has stepped in on many occasions, setting up a dispute tribunal. But its “final” awards – most recently in 2013 – are invariably rejected by one state or both. Tensions can lead to disruptive violence.

Central Asia

The fertile areas of Central Asia are deserts made arable by an integrated system of dams and canals in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins, built in the Soviet era. Since then, management of the whole system has fractured – as have inter-state relations. The upstream states, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, enjoy a water surplus, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan suffer, as the near-empty Aral Sea at the end of the rivers stands eloquent testimony. Infrastructure is dilapidated, and wasteful. Two new upstream dams proposed in 2012 ratcheted tensions further. Agreements are ignored and state leaders have so far proved immune to compromise.

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