Читать книгу The Incomplete Currency - Marcello Minenna - Страница 5
List of Figures
ОглавлениеFigure 1.3 Calculation of the fair price of a 6-month floating-rate bond issued by Bank A
Figure 1.5 Calculation of the swap rate of a 2-year floating-rate bond issued by Bank A
Figure 1.1 °Credit Default Swap contract (CDS)
Figure 1.11 The real interest rate
Figure 1.12 Inflation, nominal and real interest rates in Italy (1975–2014)
Figure 1.13 Inflation, nominal and real interest rates in the US (2000–2014)
Figure 1.14 Inflation, nominal and real interest rates in Germany (2000–2014)
Figure 1.15 Inflation, nominal and real interest rates in Japan (2000–2014)
Figure 1.16 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in Argentina (1884–2010)
Figure 1.17 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in France (1880–2010)
Figure 1.18 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in Germany (1880–2010)
Figure 1.19 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in Greece (1884–2010)
Figure 1.20 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in Italy (1860–2010)
Figure 1.21 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in Spain (1880–2010)
Figure 1.22 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in UK (1880–2010)
Figure 1.23 Inflation and Debt/GDP ratio in the US (1860–2010)
Figure 1.24 Interest rate on 10-year government bonds of various Eurozone countries
Figure 1.25 Credit disbursed from the banking systems to the national economies (Eurozone)
Figure 1.27 Term structure of the interest rates on interbank loans
Figure 1.28 Term structure of the interest rates on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) transactions
Figure 1.32 Excerpt from the Statute of Federal Reserve Bank (USA)
Figure 1.33 Excerpt from the Statute of the European Central Bank (EU)
Figure 1.34 Evolution of the ECB short-term refinancing rate (MRO rate)
Figure 1.35 Evolution of the ECB rate on Marginal Lending Facility (MLF)
Figure 1.36 Evolution of the rate paid by the ECB on overnight deposits
Figure 1.37 Amount of overnight deposits at the European Central Bank
Figure 1.38 Amount of standard cash deposits at the European Central Bank
Figure 1.39 Total amount of cash deposits (standard and overnight) at the European Central Bank
Figure 1.40 Market quote of the US sovereign CDS in June 2012
Figure 1.41 Market quotes of the CDSs of the individual states of the US federation in June 2012
Figure 1.42 Market quote of the CDSs of the individual states of the Eurozone in June 2012
Figure 1.44 Definition of a sovereign CDS denominated in Euro
Figure 1.45 Definition of a sovereign CDS denominated in Dollars
Figure 1.46 Definition of Dollar/Euro CDS quanto spread
Figure 1.47 Representation of the Bond spread on an Italian government bond (BTP)
Figure 1.48 Relation between CDS spread and Bond spread in absence of arbitrage
Figure 1.49 The basis in absence of arbitrage
Figure 1.50 Positive basis arbitrage strategy
Figure 1.51 Negative basis arbitrage strategy
Figure 1.52 Underlying reasons of the positive basis phenomenon
Figure 1.53 Development of the bases for Germany, France, Italy and Spain
Figure 1.55 Underlying reasons for the negative basis phenomenon
Figure 1.56 Evolution of the 5-year OIS and SWAP and yield on the 5-year Bund: period 2000–2014
Figure 1.57 Definition of the cash synthetic basis
Figure 1.58 Types of risks considered in the definition of the cash synthetic basis
Figure 1.59 Relation between negative basis and cash synthetic basis
Figure 1.60 Trend of the basis and of the cash synthetic basis for Italy
Figure 1.61 Relation between positive basis and cash synthetic basis
Figure 1.62 Trend of the basis and of the cash synthetic basis for Germany
Figure 1.63 Distinctive trait of the Germany basis
Figure 2.1 The European Financial System: the key players
Figure 2.2 The relationship between the banks and the sovereign states
Figure 2.7 The relationship between the banks and the European Central Bank
Figure 2.8 The management of the collateral by the ECB (2000–2007)
Figure 2.10 The key relationships in the European financial system
Figure 2.11 The outflow of financial assets from Europe to the US
Figure 2.12 The depreciation of the Euro/Dollar exchange rate
Figure 2.13 The outflow of financial assets from the US to Europe
Figure 2.14 The appreciation of the Euro/Dollar exchange rate
Figure 2.15 Exchange rate Italian Lira/German Deutschmark–(January 1995–December 1998)
Figure 2.16 Exchange rate Italian Lira/French Franc–(January 1995–December 1998)
Figure 2.17 Interest rate on 10-year government bonds of different Eurozone countries
Figure 2.18 Summary of the convergence trade strategy
Figure 2.21 The increase of real interest rate in Europe
Figure 2.23 The increase of the real interest rate in the US
Figure 2.25 % Exports + imports of different Eurozone countries as a percentage of GDP
Figure 2.26 % Exports and imports in terms of GDP for the giants of the world economy
Figure 2.29 Average inflation rates of the various Eurozone countries (1999–2007)
Figure 2.30 Average real interest rates in Eurozone countries (1999–2007)
Figure 2.33 Real effective exchange rate trend of some Eurozone countries 1994–2008 (basis 1994)
Figure 2.36 Trend of the current account balance of the main Eurozone countries: 2002–2013
Figure 2.37 Accounting of financial flows in the Target2 payments system–1st Part
Figure 2.38 Accounting of financial flows in the Target2 payments system–2nd Part
Figure 2.39 ISA balance of the US Reserve Banks ($ billion 2003–2014)
Figure 2.40 Target2 net balances for different Eurozone countries (1999–2014)
Figure 2.41 Target2 net balance for peripheral and core countries of the Eurozone (1999–2014)
Figure 2.42 Hidden transfer of credit risks in the Target2 payments system
Figure 2.43 Infringement procedures provided by the Stability and Growth Pact
Figure 2.44 Phase 1 of the speculative attack on the Lira (August–September 1992)
Figure 2.45 Phase 2 of the speculative attack on the Lira (August–September 1992)
Figure 2.46 Phase 3 of the speculative attack on the Lira (August–September 1992)
Figure 3.1 Eurozone inflation rate (1999–2007)
Figure 3.2 % Growth rate of the GDP of some Eurozone countries (1999–2007)
Figure 3.3 Budget deficit in terms of GDP for some Eurozone countries (2002–2007)
Figure 3.4 Evolution of the real estate bubble in Spain (1998–2008)
Figure 3.5 Normalised trend of the prices of new building in Ireland and the USA (1998–2008)
Figure 3.6 Percentage weight of real estate taxes on total fiscal revenues–Ireland (2002–2007)
Figure 3.8 GDP change for some Eurozone countries in 2009
Figure 3.9 Budget deficit in terms of GDP of some Eurozone countries (2008–2013)
Figure 3.10 10-year government bonds' yields of various Eurozone countries
Figure 3.11 Evolution of the real effective exchange rate of some Eurozone countries 1994–2014
Figure 3.15 Evolution of the inflation rate in some Eurozone countries (2004–2014)
Figure 3.16 Evolution of the inflation rate and the real interest rate in Italy (2004–2014)
Figure 3.17 Evolution of the inflation and the real interest rate in Spain (2004–2014)
Figure 3.23 Evolution of CDS spread for Spain, Germany, Italy and France (July 2009–September 2012)
Figure 3.24 Gross amount of traded sovereign CDS ($ billion)–US and Eurozone (August 2012)
Figure 3.28 Total financial assets/GDP ratio of the major world economies
Figure 4.1 Target2 net balance for the peripheral and core Eurozone countries (1999–2014)
Figure 4.2 Evolution of the current account /GDP ratio of the main Eurozone countries: 2002–2013
Figure 4.4 Italy: evolution of the financial account and some of its components (2004–2014)
Figure 4.5 Spain: evolution of the financial account and some of its components (2004–2014)
Figure 4.6 Italian government bonds held by the main Eurozone banking systems (2010–2014)
Figure 4.7 Spanish government bonds held by the main Eurozone banking systems (2010–2014)
Figure 4.8 Germany: evolution of the financial account and some of its components (2004–2014)
Figure 4.10 German government bonds held by the main Eurozone banking systems (2010–2014)
Figure 4.11 Credits of the German banks towards the Eurozone: breakdown by country (2002–2014)
Figure 4.14 Credits of German banks and net trade balance of Germany to France (2002–2014)
Figure 4.15 Credits of German banks and net trade balance of Germany to Italy (2002–2014)
Figure 4.16 Credits of German banks and net trade balance of Germany to Spain (2002–2014)
Figure 4.24 Italian public debt held by the Italian and foreign banking sectors (1997–2014)
Figure 4.25 Italian public debt: breakdown by holders (1997–2014)
Figure 4.27 Performance of the RESI index (1999–2014)
Figure 4.28 Evolution of LTRO loans to the Italian banking system (1999–2014)
Figure 4.29 Total loans of the ECB to the European banking system (2011–2014): breakdown by country
Figure 4.30 The impact of the ECB liquidity support on the Italian real economy (2010–2014)
Figure 4.32 The impact of the ECB liquidity support on the RESI index (1999–2014)
Figure 4.36 Evolution of the yield on the 10-year Greek government bonds (2010–2011)
Figure 4.44 Breakdown of the Greek public debt by asset class (December 2011)
Figure 4.45 Evolution of the yields on the 10-year Greek government bonds (2010–2012)
Figure 4.47 Deferred tax assets in the balance sheets of the main Greek banks (2011–2014)
Figure 4.50 Evolution of the yields on the 10-year Greek government bonds (2010 to 2014)
Figure 4.55 Greek public debt: breakdown by asset class (January 2015)
Figure 4.56 Total exposure of Eurozone governments to the Greece risk (December 2014)
Figure 4.57 ELA ceiling to Greek banks (February–August 2015)
Figure 5.2 Placement of a bank bond with intermediation of the market risk
Figure 5.3 Probabilistic analysis of a bank bond with intermediation of the market risk
Figure 5.4 Placement of a bank bond with intermediation of the credit risk
Figure 5.5 Probabilistic analysis of a bank bond with intermediation of the credit risk (Part 1)
Figure 5.6 Probabilistic analysis of a bank bond with intermediation of the credit risk (Part 2)
Figure 5.7 Probabilistic analysis of a bank bond with intermediation of the credit risk (Part 3)
Figure 5.10 Direct effects of the collateral discrimination in a repo operation
Figure 5.11 Direct effects of collateral discrimination in reverse repo operations
Figure 5.14 Overview of the collateral discrimination phenomenon
Figure 5.15 Spread Intermediation via collateral discrimination in a repo contract (Case C)
Figure 5.16 Spread intermediation via collateral discrimination in a repo contract (Case D)
Figure 5.17 Spread intermediation via collateral discrimination in a repo contract (case E)
Figure 5.19 Loans granted by the ECB to the banking system: Breakdown by country (May 2012)
Figure 5.23 Transmission mechanism of the spread via the public auctions of government bonds
Figure 5.32 The “factors of combustion” of the divergence process and their interactions
Figure 6.1 The functioning of the “Gold Standard” fixed exchange rate agreement
Figure 6.2 The functioning of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreement
Figure 6.9 Explanation of the synchronous trend of Italian BTP yields and CDS spread
Figure 6.12 Explanation of the decoupled trend of Bund yields and CDS spread in Germany
Figure 6.15 Extent of government debts in relation to GDP (Eurozone: year 2014)
Figure 6.16 Government debt and GDP for several EU countries (2014 in € billion)
Figure 6.17 National bonds issued on foreign markets (% on the overall issued amount–March 2014)
Figure 6.18 Restriction on the issuance of public debt without standard CACs for Eurozone countries
Figure 6.19 Estimates of the Deficit/GDP ratio for 2014 (peripheral countries)
Figure 6.20 Exports and Imports in terms of GDP for several EU countries–2013
Figure 6.21 Share of exports to the Eurozone: period–2008 2013
Figure 7.2 Total loans granted by the EFSF (2011–2014)
Figure 7.3 Issues of the EFSF Fund–structure of the placed amounts
Figure 7.4 Issues of the EFSF Fund–structure of annual yields
Figure 7.5 Issues of the EFSF Fund–maturity structure of the issues
Figure 7.6 Geographical breakdown of investors who bought securities issued by the EFSF (2011–2014)
Figure 7.7 EFSF issues (2011–2014): breakdown by category of investors
Figure 7.8 Yield comparison between 10Y EFSF and 10Y Euro Swap Rate
Figure 7.10 Total loans disbursed by the ESM (2012–2014)
Figure 7.11 Issues of the ESM–structure of placed amounts
Figure 7.12 Issues of the ESM–structure of annual yields
Figure 7.13 Issues of the ESM–maturity structure of the issues
Figure 7.14 Geographical breakdown of investors who bought securities issued by the ESM (2013–2014)
Figure 7.15 ESM issues (2013–2014) breakdown by category of investors
Figure 7.18 Selected countries' MTOs versus structural balance forecasts for 2014 and 2015
Figure 8.1 Evolution of the European Central Bank purchasing programmes (in € billion)
Figure 8.5 PSPP monthly purchases of government and agencies bonds–breakdown by country (€ billion)
Figure 8.6 PSPP impact on the term structure of Bunds
Figure 8.7 PSPP impact on the term structure of OATs
Figure 8.8 Eurozone government bonds with implicit negative yields (% of total debt)
Figure 8.12 Impact of the PSPP and of the flash crash of 29 April 2015 on the term structure of OATs
Figure 8.14 Impact of the PSPP and of the 1st and the 2nd flash crash on the term structure of Bunds
Figure 8.15 Impact of the PSPP and of the 1st and the 2nd flash crash on the term structure of OATs
Figure 9.1 The three pillars of the European Banking Union
Figure 9.3 DTAs in the balance sheet of the main Italian banks (2011–2014)
Figure 9.4 DTAs in the balance sheet of the main Spanish banks (2011–2014)
Figure 9.5 DTAs in the balance sheet of the main Portuguese banks (2011–2014)
Figure 9.6 DTAs in the balance sheet of the main Greek banks (2011–2014)
Figure 9.8 Exposure of Eurozone governments towards national banking systems (2014)
Figure 10.1 Degree of mutualisation of debt in the current implementation in the USA
Figure 10.5 Degree of debt mutualisation in the “Blue Bonds” proposal
Figure 10.6 Federal budget of the US and of the European Union as a percentage of their GDP (2014)
Figure 10.7 Degree of fiscal integration in terms of transfers in the US
Figure 10.8 Degree of fiscal integration in terms of transfers in Germany
Figure 10.11 Degree of fiscal integration of the Finnish proposal in terms of transfers
Figure 11.1 Public debt and interest burden: comparison between Germany and Italy
Figure 11.2 EPDRP: breakdown by country
Figure 11.3 Eurozone's public debt: breakdown by maturity
Figure 11.4 EPDRP: duration and extent of the programme for the main Eurozone countries
Figure 11.5 EPDRP: reprofiling of the public debt of the main Eurozone countries
Figure 11.6 EPDRP: reduction in the interest burden for the main Eurozone countries
Figure 11.9 Example of a security scheme
Figure 12.2 Selection of an investment in BTP through the probability table
Figure 12.3 Representation of a complex financial product through the probability table
Figure 12.4 Selection of an investment in a complex financial product through the probability table
Figure 12.5 Some heterogeneous financial products
Figure 12.6 Probability scenarios and fair value of some heterogeneous financial products
Figure 12.7 Macroeconomic benefits of rules based on the measurement and transparency of risks