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Four degrees

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 Most of the Nile Delta is threatened by rising seas, as is a third of Bangladesh. Tens of millions more become climate refugees.

 West Antarctic ice sheet potentially collapses, pumping five metres of water into global sea levels.

Tip: El Niño is the name given to a reversal of currents in the east Pacific Ocean, which brings warm water to the coast of Peru, sparking rainfall in areas that are normally desert. In contrast, the lush forests of Papua New Guinea, where the rain usually falls, bake in drought. El Niño, in fact, changes weather across the globe.

 Southern Europe becomes like the Sahara, with deserts spreading in Spain and Portugal. People move north into temperate refuges in Scandinavia and the British Isles, which become increasingly overcrowded, resulting in further conflict.

 All glaciers disappear from the Alps, further reducing water supplies in central Europe.

 Permafrost melt in Siberia releases billions of tonnes of methane and carbon dioxide, meaning that global warming spirals upward.

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