Читать книгу Behavioral Finance and Your Portfolio - Michael M. Pompian - Страница 16

Market research shows that when investors try to protect their portfolios by moving in and out of the market, they limit gains and increase losses. Taking a long-term view is challenging but it is the most rewarding strategy. This is because staying invested helps fuel long-term portfolio appreciation. The primary evidence linking investor behavior to sub-par investment returns is a study done by a firm called DALBAR in Boston every year. This study compares the returns actually earned by the investor to indexed returns and inflation. Investor returns are calculated by DALBAR using the change in total mutual fund assets after excluding sales, redemptions and exchanges. This method of calculation captures realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses and any other costs. The most recently available study as of this writing is 2019.¹ That report found that the average investor took some money off the table in early 2018 as the market went up, but was poorly positioned for the second half of the year. The average investor was a net withdrawer of funds in 2018. Poor timing caused a loss of 9.42% on the year compared to an S&P 500 index that lost only 4.38%. Figure 1.1 illustrates the DALBAR data as of the 2019 report. Note the 30-year difference of 6% per annum!

Figure 1.1 Investor Returns from the 2019 DALBAR Report

Source: DALBAR Report, 2019. ©2019, DALBAR, Inc.

Figure 1.2 The Behavioral Finance Gap

The difference between the returns earned by investors holding a given index versus the returns earned by investors who move their money around in an emotional response to market movements is called the “Behavioral Finance Gap.” Figure 1.2 demonstrates this concept. The purpose of this book is to help you minimize this gap so that you can reach your financial goals. MIND THE GAP!