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Identifying Threats

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There's an almost infinite possibility of threats, so it's important to use a structured approach to accurately identify relevant threats. For example, some organizations use one or more of the following three approaches:

 Focused on Assets This method uses asset valuation results and attempts to identify threats to the valuable assets.

 Focused on Attackers Some organizations are able to identify potential attackers and can identify the threats they represent based on the attacker's motivations, goals, or tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs).

 Focused on Software If an organization develops software, it can consider potential threats against the software.

It's common to pair threats with vulnerabilities to identify threats that can exploit assets and represent significant risks to the organization. An ultimate goal of threat modeling is to prioritize the potential threats against an organization's valuable assets.

When attempting to inventory and categorize threats, it is often helpful to use a guide or reference. Microsoft developed a threat categorization scheme known as the STRIDE threat model. STRIDE is an acronym standing for the following:

 Spoofing: An attack with the goal of gaining access to a target system through the use of a falsified identity. When an attacker spoofs their identity as a valid or authorized entity, they are often able to bypass filters and blockades against unauthorized access.

 Tampering: Any action resulting in unauthorized changes or manipulation of data, whether in transit or in storage.

 Repudiation: The ability of a user or attacker to deny having performed an action or activity by maintaining plausible deniability. Repudiation attacks can also result in innocent third parties being blamed for security violations.

 Information disclosure: The revelation or distribution of private, confidential, or controlled information to external or unauthorized entities.

 Denial of service (DoS): An attack that attempts to prevent authorized use of a resource. This can be done through flaw exploitation, connection overloading, or traffic flooding.

 Elevation of privilege: An attack where a limited user account is transformed into an account with greater privileges, powers, and access.

Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis (PASTA) is a seven-stage threat modeling methodology. PASTA is a risk-centric approach that aims at selecting or developing countermeasures in relation to the value of the assets to be protected. The following are the seven steps of PASTA:

 Stage I: Definition of the Objectives (DO) for the Analysis of Risks

 Stage II: Definition of the Technical Scope (DTS)

 Stage III: Application Decomposition and Analysis (ADA)

 Stage IV: Threat Analysis (TA)

 Stage V: Weakness and Vulnerability Analysis (WVA)

 Stage VI: Attack Modeling & Simulation (AMS)

 Stage VII: Risk Analysis & Management (RAM)

Each stage of PASTA has a specific list of objectives to achieve and deliverables to produce in order to complete the stage. For more information on PASTA, please see Risk Centric Threat Modeling: Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis (Wiley, 2015), by Tony UcedaVelez and Marco M. Morana.

Visual, Agile, and Simple Threat (VAST) is a threat modeling concept that integrates threat and risk management into an Agile programming environment on a scalable basis (see Chapter 20, “Software Development Security,” regarding Agile).

These are just a few in the vast array of threat modeling concepts and methodologies available from community groups, commercial entities, government agencies, and international associations.

(ISC)2 CISSP Certified Information Systems Security Professional Official Study Guide

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