Читать книгу Prospect of Biological and Nuclear Terrorism in Central Asia and Russia - Musa Khan Jalalzai - Страница 5

Summary

The return of terrorists from Syria Iraq and Libya is a new threat in Europe as these newly recruited jihadists know the constitution of dirty bomb and Nuclear Explosice Devices. Recent developments in Central Asia and the establishment of the ISIS networks in Caucasus region and Central Europe have put jihadisn and radicalization back on Russian and European security agenda. Russia and China have already questioned the threat of the existence of US biological weapons laboratories in Central Asia. The danger of nuclear terrorism is intensifying by the day. Recent military technological deployments in Russia and the United States, and China’s possible nuclear test amid global fight against coronavirus have diverted the attention of nuclear and technology expert to the collateral damage of nuclear war in near future.

There is different perception that the future wars will wipeout some states and their geographycal and social stratification. Modern technologies are continuing to influence the nature of nuclear war. The worst-case scenario also cannot be ruled out as international concern over nuclear terrorism has grown in 2020, and this has driven a broad spectrum of efforts to strengthen nuclear security globally. Russia is a leading power in developing new military technologies, while President Vladimir Putin once said that modern equipment made up 82 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad: “our equipment must be better than the world’s best if we want to come out as the winners.”

Modern military technologies have changed effectiveness of operations in the battlefields. The use of some newly invented weapons in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq added to the pain of civil society in Russia, Europe and the United States. The introduction and use of these technologies is understood as a series of qualitative changes in mobility of bigger armies. Security Forces have become technologically complex. Analysts Maxim Suchkov, Sim Tack (The Future of War, Valdai Discussion Club Report, August 2019) have noted some important aspects of modern future war and its impacts on modern society:

“The evolution of technologies is the first and perhaps main element where public perceptions are concerned. However, with all their importance, technologies are only able to foster change in tandem with other components. Their emergence and subsequent introduction in the armed forces facilitates the development of relevant skills and capabilities, which in turn stimulate the emergence of new procedures to harness their potential. The political antagonisms of the modern world have reached a degree that is indeed alarming. No less destabilizing than the lowered pain threshold that used to guard against the use of force or wars between the states – is the visible imbalance between the advancing technological warfare capabilities and the lack of practical experience in using these technologies. This is one of the reasons why the contours of a large-scale military clash between major or comparable powers5 are still unclear.......Nevertheless, significant changes are taking place on the tacticaloperational level, changes that must not be ignored if we want to form the correct idea of what war will be in the future. It is necessary to adapt these changes to the current varieties of warfare in order to minimize losses and achieve more success in military operations. Drones have fared better than anything else in this sense, being an effective tool for reducing personnel losses, accelerating operations, and raising the level of mission performance if handled by competent operators relying on accurate intelligence”.

Recent warning of the Putin administration against the US low-yield nuclear weapon indicates that Russian forces are capable to destroy US Submarines in a short notice. On 29 April 2020; VoA reported reaction of Russian Foreign Ministry to the State Department paper that asserted that the low-yield weapons “reduce the risk of nuclear war by reinforcing extended deterrence and assurance”. Moreover, Federation of American Scientists warned (January 2020) that the U.S. Navy had deployed for the first time a submarine armed with a low-yield Trident nuclear warhead. The USS Tennessee deployed from Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia in 2019.

The W76-2 warhead, which is facing criticism at home and abroad, is estimated to have about a third of the explosive power of the atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima. Any attack involving a U.S. submarine-launched ballistic missile, regardless of its weapon specifications, would be perceived as a nuclear aggression,” Russian Foreign Ministry warned. However, on 16 April 2020, Associated Press reported Chinese Foregn Ministry reponce to the allegations of U.S. State Department report about country’s secret nuclear test which is in violation of its international obligations.“China has always performed its international obligations and commitments in a responsible manner, firmly upheld multilateralism, and actively carried out international cooperation,” Foreiign Minister Spokeswoman said.

The Trump administration is in deep trouble since the test of Russia’s anti-satellite missiles, and its defeat in Afghanistan. NATO and the United States issued warning of Russian hybrid war against NATO and Europe, while they have destabilised Middle East and Central Asia and used nuclear and biological weapons in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Europeans are well aware of their security and friendship with Russia. For the first time, Europe has extended hand of cooperation to Russia due to the hegemonic attitude of the Trump administration. In this big strategic game, Russians and Americans have the same reason for modernizing their nuclear forces. In yesteryears, President Vladimir Putin developed modern weapons and restored the real Russian place in international community. Since Russia seized Crimea in 2014, the Russians have begun to build up basing sites for their advanced systems, including the Iskanders, but nuclear experts warned that if Russia deploys nuclear weapons there, it will spark complex problems. Analyst Scott Ritter (RT News, 28 April, 2020) highlighted the START and complication of US and Russia’s inventions of moder technologies and weapons, which will exacerbate the process of nuclear war preparations:

“Both the US and Russia are engaged in the early stages of developing new strategic nuclear weapons to replace older systems. These weapons, which will cost trillions of dollars to develop and deploy, are with few exceptions still many years away from entering into service. A five-year extension of New START would provide both nations time to reach an agreement which responsibly addresses the need for strategic nuclear force modernization while continuing the past practice of seeking additional cuts in their respective nuclear arsenals...China’s intransigence runs counter to the official US position, most recently articulated in a State Department report sent to Congress regarding Russian compliance with the New START Treaty. While the report finds that Russia is complying with its treaty obligations, the treaty does not cover enough Russian strategic systems, including several that have been previously announced by President Putin, and leaves China to operate with no restrictions in terms of the size and scope of its strategic nuclear arsenal”.

Perhapse, China is also preparing to build new missiles technology, and expand anti-satellite capabilities and nuclear material production increase. The question is how China can use nuclear weapons as the country maintains the policy of peaceful coexistence? In 2019, its Defence White Paper noted the country sticked to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, but recent hostile nuclear environment has forced the country to deploy a nuclear triad of strategic land, sea, and air-launched nuclear systems to defend its territorial integrity and national security.Despite the progress made by international conventions, biological and chemical weapons still are precarious threat in Europe and Central Asia. There are 183 states parties to the BWC, and 193 states parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention. The rapid spread of coronavirus in Europe and Russia has created awareness in the region that biological war is not in the interests of the region.

According to Russia’s new military doctrine the possibility of limited uses of nuclear weapons at the tactical and operational levels and of chemical and biological weapons is possible. As the United States and NATO have established biological weapons laboratories in Central Asia and Afghanistan and used these weapons against the civilian population of Afghanistan, Russian military leadership has taken these developments seriously. However, weaponization of Coronavirus by some states to further their political interests might prompt adverse effects. Russia is training its chemical and biological army on modern streak. New CBRN defense vehicles and equipment can be used in the fight against coronavirus. Its forces have also undertaken more CBRN training to the future war effectively. The danger from these weapons is so consternating, and the dirty bomb material and its fatalities diverted attention of terrorist groups to biological weapons. Smuggling of nuclear weapons is a serious challenge in Europe and Central Asia, while smuggling of these weapons in Africa and Europe has threatened security of the region. In 2019, more than 189 incidents of nuclear and biological weapons smuggling were reported by 36 States, indicating that illegal activities continue to occur. International efforts to reduce the loss of material control have failed due to the smugglers changing startegies. Georgia and Moldova are the two states where smuggling of dirty bomb materials and nuclear agents is in progress. However, there are reports that the ISIS wants to go nuclear. In March 2016, after the ISIS-linked bombings in Brussels, reports consirmed a member of the ISIS tried to access to radioactive materials.