Читать книгу The Little Black Book of Decision Making - Nicholas Michael - Страница 7

“As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.”

– Ralph Waldo Emerson

Decisions are of considerable importance in practically every aspect of life. Professionally, they are arguably the thing that makes the difference to the level of success we achieve, because they determine how well every other talent or capability that we have can be applied. Our decision-making capability also determines the size and type of problem we can solve, and is therefore strongly related to how far we can progress and how much we will thrive.

There is no reason to think that the importance of decision making will reduce any time soon either. While I was writing this book, the World Economic Forum released its list of the top 10 skills they believe we will need in the workplace by 2020.1 The top three were “complex problem solving”, “critical thinking” and “creativity”, all of which are vital elements of the mental capabilities necessary to make effective decisions (don't worry, if you don't recognise that creativity is a fundamental aspect of decision making, you will by the end of Part 1 of this book). Meanwhile, “judgment and decision making” was on the list explicitly at number six, and “cognitive flexibility”, without which there can be no creativity, was in at number 10. So, the indicators are that if you want to be successful you'd better make sure you are a good decision maker. Let's take a quick look at what that might involve.

Although the decision itself occurs at a particular moment in time, to break down and understand the challenges involved we need to consider the whole process. This is a pretty standard approach:

1. Understand the problem.

2. Gather relevant information.

3. Analyse that information.

4. Draw implications from the results.

5. Identify options.

6. Decide which option to implement.

7. Take action.

Historically, experts have been sought out for their ability to go through this process quickly and reliably. Their previous experience would enable them to efficiently complete the first three tasks, because they would know what to look for. They would instinctively understand the implications of the data and be able to come up with range of scenarios for how to proceed without needing to go far beyond the bounds of what they had seen before, somewhere else. That is the nature of understanding “best practice”, and it has been highly valued, for good reason. They would have a deep appreciation of how to implement the plan. Whether the skill involved was as a lawyer, engineer, scientist, medic, architect, consultant, entrepreneur or business leader, it has been pretty much essential, if we sought to progress, that we could demonstrate this decision-making capability. This was the route to recognition and respect, and a huge factor in determining a person's value in the marketplace.

Right now, we are at the leading edge of a transformation that will profoundly change all of that. I know, the term “transformation” is so overused, with many of the situations that it is supposed to describe, particularly corporate transformations, being little more than a bit of reinvention around the edges. Genuine transformation is what happens when a piece of paper is put in a fire – there is no going back. I use the word transformation deliberately, because there will be no going back from what is taking place right now. It has already started, and by the time it is over (to the degree it can be considered fully over), it will have fundamentally restructured the basis of how we, as human beings, will create value. The question is, will you keep up?

In 1987, as a junior officer in the Royal Air Force, responsible for the communications and navigation aids on an airbase, I had been updating our contingency plans for dealing with damage that might be caused by an enemy air attack. On completion of each section, it was sent to the typing pool; then, when it was returned, I'd proofread it for errors and send back any pages which had any so they could be re-typed. It was time-consuming, inefficient and pretty boring, but I didn't recognise that back then – I was just doing my job.

That was about the time I was offered my first computer, to which my response was, “What would I want that for?” I was relatively tech savvy having done a degree in engineering, with my final-year project involving writing computer code so that I could control part of a flexible manufacturing system, yet I still couldn't envisage how I could use a computer at work, much less how computing power might change the world of work (I'll be talking about this challenge to our decision making, which is called bounded awareness, later in the book). But lack of awareness in such circumstances doesn't shield us from the outcomes, and it wasn't long before all of us in that process, especially those typists, were forced to change.

Since then, while computing has revolutionised manufacturing processes and replaced many jobs in those industries with robots, for professionals and people in service industries, its impact has been relatively minor. Not many have lost their jobs, nor had to change the basic nature of what they do very much – they now just do it somewhat more quickly through a computer interface. Sure, we now have access to vastly more data at stage two in the process above, and we have computers to assist with stage three, but the underlying approach is the same, the way we think is the same, and so is our basic approach to adding value. But unless current forecasts are very wrong, this is all about to change in a way that will make what has happened so far look like little more than a ripple on the ocean, because artificial intelligence (AI) is coming, and soon, and with its arrival many jobs will go.

Just think what smart machines will do to decision making. Already, they can outperform experts in stages two and three of the decision process above, covering the two areas that have most enabled experts to differentiate themselves. They can learn more quickly and accurately, they don't run out of capacity, they have perfect recall, and the best of them can even outsmart us in critical thinking tasks, such as medical diagnoses. What's more, they aren't subject to the well-known biases that can affect human beings (some of which I'll introduce you to in this book). How long before even complex business problems are being diagnosed, and actions recommended, by a machine?

If that were the whole story, we'd be in big trouble. The reduction in our ability to add value would be all but inevitable – a question of when, not if. However, there are things that we are uniquely capable of doing; skills and capabilities which look as though they will be beyond machines for some time yet, perhaps indefinitely. These include our ability to understand novel concepts and situations, to connect with human beings at emotional levels, and to create, innovate and invent. We need to play to these strengths, and the interesting thing is that as the pace of change in the world increases, led by advanced technology such as AI systems, so does the demand for these human capabilities.

One area where this is especially true is in decision making, where success in meeting the needs and challenges of the new world will no longer be about the size of the problem you can handle, but more to do with the type of problem that you can solve. This is not just a response to smart machines – it is happening anyway, because of the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that have been such popular topics for leadership and business articles in general over the last few years. I'll show you in this book why the challenges created by a highly unpredictable environment can't be met with the form of decision making that uses a process like the one outlined above, and what you'll need to do instead. We'll look at some of the capabilities that will enable you to stay relevant and to continue to add value, whatever technology delivers.

What I hope to demonstrate is that your ability to perceive or think differently, which is within everyone's grasp, is going to be more important to decision making than any specific knowledge you may have gathered to date.

That's the good news. The bad news is that not many people have yet put much effort into developing the capabilities needed in this new world, or even know how to go about doing so. To be successful, you'll need a different focus to the one that you've been taught ever since you went to school, and which society has typically acknowledged and rewarded. You'll also need a different approach to the learning that is needed from that which we've always been taught. It's not really about “methods” or “techniques” – that approach would need an encyclopedia to cover all of the angles, and there would still be gaps. It is going to be about integrating a set of solid principles, based on sound understanding about how our minds and brains work, which can equip you both for what is happening and what is to come.

That is what I've sought to address in this book. Each chapter will introduce one principle, each of which I believe to be critical to developing the decision-making capabilities needed for the future. They are presented within a structured framework that will help you to gain a deep understanding of the relevance of each one. As this understanding grows, so you know what to do and why, the “how” that I'll describe in Part 3 will get easier.

I hope you will enjoy the book, find it interesting and that it will challenge some of your established beliefs, because that is how learning takes place. But even more than that, this is a time when knowing is not enough – we must take action – so I hope it will inspire you to do the personal work necessary to put the principles I'll be covering into practice. Know that if you do nothing, that is still a decision – it's a decision in favour of the status quo. It's a decision not to change. It's a decision to put comfort ahead of opportunity. And, as you will see, it's a decision that risks you waking up one day and realising that the world has changed and that you didn't take advantage of it. Or, alternatively, you could take the decision to get ahead of the curve, so that you will start to accrue benefits in advance and be ready when the full force of the coming transformation hits us.