Читать книгу Investing in Gold & Silver For Dummies - Paul Mladjenovic, Paul Mladjenovic, Ted Sudol - Страница 73

Fortunately, the shiny seeds of a bull market are usually planted in the muddy dirt of a grim bear market (poetic — you can quote me). Stocks got on the comeback trail in 2009, but gold was ready to roar again, too. The end of 2008 marked the beginning of gold’s second bull market for this millennium. After wallowing under $1,000 during much of the second half of 2008, it got its footing during 2009.

Very often when an asset is moving sideways and/or slightly declining, it’s typically called “consolidating,” which is essentially building a base or launchpad for the next move up. Sometimes consolidating is done in a few weeks; sometimes it’s much longer, perhaps months or years. But if demand and supply is strong or somewhat favorable, the upmove — bull market — eventually returns. And usually it potentially means new highs.

This was the case for gold in 2009. Gold languished under $1,000 during much of the first half of 2009; it came close to cracking the $1,000 level twice but failed. The $1,000 level was “resistance” (a technical analysis term explained in Chapter 15), and gold didn’t finally crack it until September 2009. At that point, the $1,000 level became “support.” Usually, once you soundly break resistance, it can become your new support as the asset keeps moving upward.

With corrections along the way (common with most bull market moves), gold zigzagged its way to a new all-time high. On September 6, 2011, gold hit $1,911.60. For gold, this was a brief visit above the $1,900 level, and its second bull market ended before a long, multiyear bear market and consolidating pattern ending in early 2019.

Bull markets are long moves punctuated with corrections along the way. A correction is usually a 5 to 10 percent move, although it could be deeper but not more than 20 percent because that’s considered technically a bear market. A bear market is a long move downward punctuated by brief rallies along the way. I tell readers in my book Stock Investing For Dummies (Wiley) that if you choose wisely (using fundamental analysis), it will zigzag upward. If you don’t choose wisely, it will zigzag downward.