The Emerging Markets Handbook

The Emerging Markets Handbook
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FINDING TOMORROW'S MARKETS FIRST
Tomorrow's booming economies are today's emerging markets. Overlooked by most investors, these markets offer serious opportunities for those prepared to move ahead of the crowd and take their investing off the beaten path.
If you're an investor unafraid of the unfamiliar and looking to carve out extraordinary opportunities in new markets, this book should be your starting point.
THE EMERGING MARKETS HANDBOOK provides investors with a highly detailed examination of 18 countries that could host the stock market stars of the future – from Chile and China to Thailand and Turkey.
At its heart is an analysis of the 18 economies' strength and potential for growth. This assessment is based on the ten crucial drivers of growth, including demographics, business conditions, capital markets and more. Following exhaustive research into the numbers behind each of these drivers, Pran Tiku is able to draw on a wealth of data from respected sources to form conclusions about the current position and future prospects of each market. He illustrates this data with explanatory charts and tables, allowing readers to trace recent trends and compare this to where the countries stand now.
Providing a groundbreaking ranking of all emerging markets, the author goes on to sort them into standouts, in-betweeners and strugglers. This means you can truly see which markets offer the most commanding opportunities, which have room for development and which currently present a poorer investment case.
Finally, the HANDBOOK concludes with a look at investment vehicles that can be used to access emerging market investments and a survey of the industries and companies that are likely to be the primary players within these 18 economies in the future.
THE EMERGING MARKETS HANDBOOK is your indispensable guide to finding the future's hottest markets. No investor can afford to be left behind.

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Pran Tiku. The Emerging Markets Handbook

Publishing details

Follow us, like us, email us

About the author

Preface

Acknowledgements

Introduction

The great global recession – emerging markets suffer and recover

Homeward bias vs. growth

Separating from the herd

Structure of the book

Ten drivers

Country by country

Sorting countries – standouts and struggling

Investment opportunities in selected countries

Summary

Chapter 1: What is an emerging market?

Definition

Millions of aspirants

Emerging markets – a bit of history

The great recession

Exhibit – Timeline

How institutions perceive emerging markets

Exhibit – How financial institutions define emerging markets

Criteria for selection of the 18 markets

Early-stage markets

Mature-stage markets

Chapter 2: Reasons to Invest in Emerging Markets

Key areas of development. Demographics

Rising middle class

Consistency of growth

Better fiscal conditions

Better inflation targeting

Rising currency values

Better banking systems

Open trade

Consumption and investment

Better political governance

More privatisation

Urbanisation

Technology and innovation

Higher savings rate

Deeper/broader financial markets

Better transparency

Reasons to be cautious

Chapter 3: Ten Drivers of Growth in Emerging Markets

1. Demographics

Demographic factors

Growth in population

Average age

Dependency ratio

Rate of migration to cities

Unemployment projection

2. Economic conditions

Economic factors

GDP year-on-year growth

GDP per capita

Inflation forecast

Foreign reserves

Investment as a percentage of GDP

Debt-to-GDP ratio

External/foreign debt-to-GDP ratio

3. Financial

Financial factors. Expansion of credit

Non-performing loan ratio

Foreign exchange (F/X) volatility

5YR CDS rates

Sovereign rating

4. Trade

Trade factors

Share of world exports

Trade balance (surplus/deficit)

Trade barriers

Dependence on exports

Reserves-to-import ratio

5. Political stability and governance

Political stability and governance factors

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) political risk

Alliant political and economic ranking

Freedom from corruption

Regulation freedom

Governance ranking

6. Business conditions

Business conditions factors. Ease of doing business rank

Starting a business rank

Role of state-owned enterprises

7. Technology, innovation and infrastructure development

Technology innovation and infrastructure factors. Innovation

Internet coverage and mobile

Digital divide

Patents

Transportation

Power

8. Human development

Human development factors. Spending on education and health

Investment in job skills

Percentage of population completing secondary education

Social ranking

9. Environment

Environmental factors. Environmental rank

10. Capital markets

Capital market factors. Capital markets

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

Chapter 4: China. Overview

Quick history

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Top 15 manufacturers by share of global manufacturing – large developing economies are increasing their share

Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Exhibit 6 – Urban population of China and other countries in 2010 (%)

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 7 – Chinese Renminbi/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 8 – Balance of exports and imports

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 11 – Hang Seng Index (in US$)

Exhibit 12 – Breakdown of China’s H-shares Index

Conclusion

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 5: South Korea. Overview

Quick history

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – South Korean won/US dollar

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 8 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 11 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 12 – South Korea’s KOSPI Index

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 6: India. Overview

Quick history

Seeds of independence

Hindu vs. Muslim

Post-independence

Rebuilding the economy

Current situation

Basic data

Business wisdom from an Indian CEO on the frontline

Current account deficits running wild

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – Growth in GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 3 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 4 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – GDP per capita from a sample of countries (2011 data, US$)

Conclusion

Demographics

Exhibit 6 – Proportion of urban and rural dwellers in Indian population

Exhibit 7 – Population growth projections

Exhibit 8 – Indian middle class as a percentage of population

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 9 – Indian rupee/US dollar in the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 10 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 11 – Rate of growth of internet usage

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 12 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 13 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 14 – Bombay Sensex Index in the last 12 years

Exhibit 15 – Number of domestically listed companies in a sample of countries

Conclusion

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 7: Thailand. Overview

Quick history

Siam

Upheaval

Current situation

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 3 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 4 – Thai baht/US dollar in the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 5 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 6 – Mobile penetration

Exhibit 7 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 8 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 9 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 10 – SET Index

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 8: Malaysia. Overview

Quick history

Second world war

Malaysian independence

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year growth in GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 6 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 7 – Malaysian ringgit/US dollar in the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 8 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of population

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 11 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 12 – Performance of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Index in the last 12 years

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 9: Indonesia. Overview

Quick history

The Spice Islands

The struggle for Indonesian democracy

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 3 – year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 4 – Performance of Indonesia and other countries across key macro indicators (2012)

Exhibit 5 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 6 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Exhibit 7 – Decline in percentage of Indonesians living in poverty

Exhibit 8 – Growing expenditure on non-food items by Indonesians

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 9 – Indonesian rupiah/US dollar performance in the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 10 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 11 – Mobile penetration

Human development

Exhibit 12 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 13 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 14 – Jakarta Stock Exchange market index

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 10: Philippines. Overview

Quick history

American control

The Philippine Republic

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – Domestic investments as a percentage of GDP of the ASEAN-6 (1990 to 2011)

Exhibit 5 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Philippine peso/US dollar performance in the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 8 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Environment

Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 11 – Philippines stock market performance

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 11: Russia. Overview

Quick history

Russia’s Golden Age

The Soviet Era

Khrushchev

Gorbachev and the dissolution of the USSR

The Russian Miracle

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Global retail development index rankings

Exhibit 7 – Number of credit cards used per person in Russia and other countries

Exhibit 8 – Russian rouble/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 9 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 11 – Russian labour productivity as a percentage of US labour productivity

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 12 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 13 – Performance of the MICEX Index

Exhibit 14 – Overview of key Russian equity indices

Conclusion

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 12: Czech Republic. Overview

Quick history

Czechoslovakia

Communism arrives

The Velvet Revolution

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 3 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Czech koruna/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 8 – Mobile penetration

Exhibit 9 – Density of the rail and road network in European countries (km per square km, 2010)

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 11 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 12 – Prague Stock Exchange Index

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 13: Hungary. Overview

Quick history

The push for independence

Two world wars

The Soviet Years

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Hungarian forint/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of exports and imports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 8 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 9 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 11 – Budapest Stock Exchange Index performance

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 14: Turkey. Overview

Quick history

The Ottoman Empire

Republic of Turkey

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – Growth in GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 3 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Turkish lira/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Exhibit 8 – Turkey’s trade with the world in 2010, 2011 and 2012

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Turkey’s top e-commerce companies

Turkey’s internet spring

Exhibit 10 – Mobile penetration

Exhibit 11 – Internet penetration in Turkey and other countries (per 100 people)

Human development

Exhibit 12 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 13 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 14 – Istanbul National 100 Index returns

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 15: Poland. Overview

Quick history

War and decline

A free Poland

Under the Soviet thumb

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 6 – Polish zloty/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 7 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 8 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 9 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 11 – Warsaw stock exchange returns

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 16: South Africa. Overview

Quick history

A British colony

The Boer Wars and the Union of South Africa

Apartheid

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 7 – South African rand/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 8 – Balance of imports and exports (USD mn)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Environment

Exhibit 11 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 12 – Johannesburg Stock Exchange index returns

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 17: Mexico. Overview

Quick history

The Mexican Miracle

The Mexican Mess

NAFTA – the turning point

Help from the US

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 3 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 5 – Mexican peso/USD performance

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 6 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 7 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 8 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 9 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 10 – Mexico Bolsa IPC Index returns

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 18: Brazil. Overview

Quick history

Slavery

Independence

Natural resources and exports

Military rule gives way to a republic once again

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP change year-on-year

Exhibit 2 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Exhibit 5 – Private consumption in Brazil and other countries

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Mortgage penetration in Brazil

Exhibit 7 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 8 – Brazilian real/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 9 – Share of Brazil exports

Exhibit 10 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 11 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 12 – Environmental ranking percentile

Conclusion

Capital markets

Exhibit 13 – Performance of the Bovespa Index over the last 12 years

Exhibit 14 – Sector market capitalisation (%)

Exhibit 15 – Global private equity penetration as a percentage of GDP (2010)

Conclusion

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 19: Colombia. Overview

Quick history

The fight to oust Spain

Independence

Drugs and resistance

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$m)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 7 – Colombian peso/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 8 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 11 – Colombian stock exchange performance

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 20: Peru. Overview

Quick history

Viceroyalty of Peru

Independence and war

A tumultuous 20th century

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 6 – Peru’s external/foreign debt-to-GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 7 – Number of credit cards in public circulation

Exhibit 8 – Peruvian Nuevo Sol/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 9 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 10 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 11 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 12 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 13 – IGBVL index performance

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 21: Chile. Overview

Quick history

Independence from Spain

Ushering in the 20th century

Transitioning to democracy

Current situation

Basic data

Growth factors. Economic

Exhibit 1 – Growth in GDP per capita, PPP adjusted (US$)

Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI

Exhibit 3 – Year-on-year change in GDP

Exhibit 4 – FDI as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Demographics

Conclusion

Financial

Exhibit 6 – Investment as a percentage of GDP

Exhibit 7 – Chilean peso/US dollar performance over the last decade

Conclusion

Trade

Exhibit 8 – Balance of imports and exports (US$m)

Conclusion

Political stability and governance

Conclusion

Business conditions

Conclusion

Technology, innovation and infrastructure

Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration

Conclusion

Human development

Exhibit 10 – Education spending as a percentage of GDP

Conclusion

Environment

Exhibit 11 – Environmental ranking percentile

Capital markets

Exhibit 12 – Chile IPSA index performance

In a nutshell. Strengths

Weaknesses

Our take

Chapter 22: Ranking the 18 emerging markets. Introduction

Driver 1 – Demographics

Exhibit 1 – Demographic factors, population growth and median age

Driver 2 – Economics

Exhibit 2 – Economic factors, GDP per capita and growth

Driver 3 – Financial

Exhibit 3 – Financial factors, credit rating and implied currency volatility

Driver 4 – Trade

Exhibit 4 – Trade factors, WEF Enabling Trade Score and current account balance (m)

Driver 5 – Political stability and governance

Exhibit 5 – Political stability and governance factors, corruption perceptions and political/economic risk

Driver 6 – Business conditions

Exhibit 6 – Business conditions factor, ease of doing business

Driver 7 – Technology, innovation and infrastructure development

Exhibit 7 – Innovation and technology factor, global innovation

Driver 8 – Human development

Exhibit 8 – Human development factors, education spending and ESG score

Driver 9 – Environment

Exhibit 9 – Environmental factor, ESG score

Driver 10 – Capital markets

Exhibit 10 – Capital Markets Factor, World Economic Forum Financial Development score and foreign direct investment

Factor summary

Composite analysis

Country rankings

Chapter 23: Investment Vehicles

Stocks

Establish a foreign-denominated account

Depository receipts

Active and passive emerging markets funds

Passive funds: Exchange traded funds (ETFs)

Active funds

Emerging market bonds

Approaches to emerging market investment. Allocation approaches

Indirect approach

Macro approach

Growth and value investing

Summary

Chapter 24: The Companies and Industries of the Future

China: The Fiery Red Dragon

Automobliles

Food and beverage sector

Healthcare

Technology

South Korea

India: Tiger waiting to pounce

Information technology

Healthcare

Consumer market

Power and energy infrastructure

ASEANs: The emeralds of the equator

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Philippines

Eastern Europe/Russia: The Eastern Bloc looking for its identity

Russia

Czech Republic

Poland

Africa: The rainbow nation leads the continent

Finance

Agriculture

Energy

Brazil: An investment carnivale

Demographics

Retail

Education

E-commerce

Andean Region: The new land of the Incas

Copper

Gold

Chemicals

Oil

Mexico

Food

Consumer market

Conclusion

Sources. Books

Websites

Also from Harriman House. The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007

Africa: The Ultimate Frontier Market

Deep Value Investing: Finding bargain shares with big potential

Free Capital: How 12 private investors made millions in the stock market

Money, Blood and Revolution: How Darwin and the doctor of King Charles I could turn economics into a science

The Origin of Financial Crises

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Another factor helping to promote political stability is the proliferation of 24/7 news media. There are armies of political scientists, analysts and hundreds of organisations watching the developments within these countries. The channels of information, in other words, are much more difficult for a government to muzzle than say the local press, which in the past would often kowtow to political heavyweights.

It should be noted that political stability is not equated to democracy because democracy is not always a good indicator of economic potential. China is clearly an example of a society that is not democratic, while India is. Yet China has consistently achieved higher growth rates. The obvious difference is that China has a controlled society with market access and has been able to channel its resources effectively to increase jobs, exports and industrialisation. India, a vibrant democracy, still has a partially closed economy with limited access and is focused on internal consumption.

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