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Pran Tiku
The Emerging Markets Handbook
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Publishing details
Follow us, like us, email us
About the author
Preface
Acknowledgements
Introduction
The great global recession – emerging markets suffer and recover
Homeward bias vs. growth
Separating from the herd
Structure of the book
Ten drivers
Country by country
Sorting countries – standouts and struggling
Investment opportunities in selected countries
Summary
Страница 17
Chapter 1: What is an emerging market?
Definition
Millions of aspirants
Emerging markets – a bit of history
The great recession
Exhibit – Timeline
How institutions perceive emerging markets
Exhibit – How financial institutions define emerging markets
Criteria for selection of the 18 markets
Early-stage markets
Mature-stage markets
Страница 29
Chapter 3: Ten Drivers of Growth in Emerging Markets
1. Demographics
Demographic factors
Growth in population
Average age
Dependency ratio
Rate of migration to cities
Unemployment projection
2. Economic conditions
Economic factors
GDP year-on-year growth
GDP per capita
Inflation forecast
Foreign reserves
Investment as a percentage of GDP
Debt-to-GDP ratio
External/foreign debt-to-GDP ratio
3. Financial
Financial factors Expansion of credit
Non-performing loan ratio
Foreign exchange (F/X) volatility
5YR CDS rates
Sovereign rating
4. Trade
Trade factors
Share of world exports
Trade balance (surplus/deficit)
Trade barriers
Dependence on exports
Reserves-to-import ratio
5. Political stability and governance
Political stability and governance factors
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) political risk
Alliant political and economic ranking
Freedom from corruption
Regulation freedom
Governance ranking
6. Business conditions
Business conditions factors Ease of doing business rank
Starting a business rank
Role of state-owned enterprises
7. Technology, innovation and infrastructure development
Technology innovation and infrastructure factors Innovation
Internet coverage and mobile
Digital divide
Patents
Transportation
Power
8. Human development
Human development factors Spending on education and health
Investment in job skills
Percentage of population completing secondary education
Social ranking
9. Environment
Environmental factors Environmental rank
10. Capital markets
Capital market factors Capital markets
Foreign direct investment (FDI)
Страница 88
Chapter 4: China Overview
Quick history
Current situation
Basic data
Growth factors Economic
Exhibit 1 – GDP per capita PPP adjusted (US$)
Exhibit 2 – Year-on-year change in CPI
Exhibit 3 – Top 15 manufacturers by share of global manufacturing – large developing economies are increasing their share
Exhibit 4 – Investment as a percentage of GDP
Exhibit 5 – Debt as a percentage of GDP
Conclusion
Demographics
Exhibit 6 – Urban population of China and other countries in 2010 (%)
Conclusion
Financial
Exhibit 7 – Chinese Renminbi/US dollar performance over the last decade
Conclusion
Trade
Exhibit 8 – Balance of exports and imports
Conclusion
Political stability and governance
Conclusion
Business conditions
Conclusion
Technology, innovation and infrastructure
Exhibit 9 – Mobile penetration
Conclusion
Human development
Conclusion
Environment
Exhibit 10 – Environmental ranking percentile
Conclusion
Capital markets
Exhibit 11 – Hang Seng Index (in US$)
Exhibit 12 – Breakdown of China’s H-shares Index
Conclusion
In a nutshell Strengths
Weaknesses
Our take
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