Читать книгу The Emerging Markets Handbook - Pran Tiku - Страница 106

In 2011, 124 countries had China as their top trade partner. As a point of comparison, 76 countries have the same relationship with the US. This was almost the exact opposite of what the numbers revealed in 2006 when the 127 countries had the US as their top trade partner versus 70 for China. Clearly China has begun to dominate world trade.

According to Trading Economics, China’s major exports include electromechanical products (57% of total exports), labour-intensive products like clothing, textiles, footwear, furniture, plastic products, bags and toys (20%), and high-tech products (29%).

On the import side, China imports commodities including crude oil, iron ore, copper and aluminum. It also imports a large number of electromechanical products.

The table below shows China’s international trade patterns.

China’s export growth slowed to 7.9% in 2012 versus close to 20% in 2011. This was mainly due to the slowdown in developed markets like the US and Europe. The government set a target of 8% for 2013 even as export prospects remained grim.

China’s trade surplus is expected to shrink with time due to rising imports caused by increased domestic demand. This is not a bad sign as China needs to reduce its dependence on exports and achieve higher growth with increased domestic demand.

It is common knowledge that China’s government puts tariffs in place to protect domestic industry. This behaviour has been inconsistent with WTO rules and a source of frustration for many countries that have had to deal with a cheap Chinese currency and a government that has been looking the other way when it comes to copyright and patent infringement.

Exhibit 8 shows Chinese import and export growth over the last decade. As can be seen, China’s exports and imports have risen concurrently over the last decade. In the future we could see a rise in imports as China moves towards a domestic consumption oriented economy and a decrease in exports as the supply of cheap labour dries up.