Читать книгу The Emerging Markets Handbook - Pran Tiku - Страница 91

After successfully navigating the 2008 recession with a massive stimulus, China seems now to be approaching income levels ($10,000 to $15,000) associated with the middle income trap. The gains that come from a rapid shift from an agrarian economy to an industrial one are fast disappearing. China is also at a point where the services sector might overtake the manufacturing sector as a percentage of GDP. This signals a shift from an export-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy.

While doomsday preachers have time and again predicted a Chinese collapse, what appears be happening is a gradual managed slowdown where China will settle into a new normal growth rate of 6% by around 2020.

In spite of all the positives, China does face many challenges. The need for business practices that will create a sustainable natural resource base, low domestic demand, a rapidly increasing migrant labour force, and corruption/crime are major headwinds to the nation’s continued growth.