Читать книгу The Emerging Markets Handbook - Pran Tiku - Страница 95

Data: Bloomberg

China has grown at an average of 10% over the last ten years. As China’s per capita GDP grows and it reaches the middle income trap, growth is expected to slow down to closer to 5% to 6% .According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, real GDP growth will average 7% a year in the period 2013 to 2017, with economic expansion decelerating gradually over the period. The government will persist, with what is expected to be some success, in its attempts to redirect the economy towards private consumption and away from its excessive reliance on investment.

Using data from HIS insight, the McKinsey Global Institute’s analysis (see Exhibit 3) shows that as economies become wealthier and reach middle-income status, manufacturing’s share of GDP peaks (at about 20% to 35% of GDP). Beyond that point, consumption shifts toward services, hiring in services outpaces job creation in manufacturing, and manufacturing’s share of GDP begins to fall along an inverted U-curve.

The report further states that employment follows a similar pattern: manufacturing’s share of US employment declined from 25% in 1950 to 9% in 2008. In Germany, manufacturing jobs fell from 35% of employment in 1970 to 18% in 2008, and South Korean manufacturing dropped from 28% of employment in 1989 to 17% in 2008.

The MGI report also suggests that as economies mature, manufacturing becomes more important for other attributes, such as the ability to drive growth in productivity, innovation and trade. Manufacturing also plays a critical role in tackling societal challenges, such as reducing energy and resource consumption and limiting greenhouse gas emissions.