Читать книгу The Emerging Markets Handbook - Pran Tiku - Страница 101

Data: esa.un.org/unup/CD-ROM/Urban-Rural-Population.htm

The median age in China is about 35 years and is only going to rise due to the one child policy. More importantly, its working age population is expected to peak at 996 million or 73% of the population by 2016 and is then expected to decline by 21% between 2016 and 2050.

China’s population has been rapidly aging and its growth will slow as fertility rates go down. According to The Economist, in the past 30 years China’s fertility rate has gone down from 2.6, the rate needed to hold a population steady, to 1.56, which is well below that rate.

The Economist also found that China’s old-age dependency ratio is 11 – roughly half America’s level of 20. But by 2050, China’s old-age ratio will have risen fourfold to 42, surpassing America’s. This accelerated growth in the dependency ratio can again be attributed to the one child policy.

Bloomberg forecasts indicate that unemployment is not expected to grow beyond 4.1%.

These figures help us understand where China is in terms of demographics compared to its nearest economic rival, the United States.