Читать книгу The Emerging Markets Handbook - Pran Tiku - Страница 19

Emerging markets are defined more by what they are not than by what they are. They are certainly not developed markets like the US and Europe. Beyond that, there is a lot of debate as to what truly constitutes an emerging market. Most agree that the centrepiece of the definition rests on the thesis that in these countries:

1 political and financial institutions are less developed or transparent, and

2 governance lacks predictability.

There is a widespread belief that most of these countries have less than adequate rule-of-law and lack clearly defined property rights.

In short, the rights, rules and governance one takes for granted in the developed world are wholly or partly absent in developing or emerging markets. The Center of Knowledge Societies describes emerging market economies as “regions of the world that are experiencing informationalizations under conditions of limited or partial industrialization.”

There is a reasonable consensus that income and consumption levels, which tend to be low compared to the developed markets, define emerging countries. But both emerging market income and consumption are on the rise. Trade and globalisation are pushing many of these countries into the limelight as they exploit their dominant human potential using current technology and natural resources.

Beyond that, there are several points of disagreement. Some emphasise quantitative factors, such as GDP or GDP-per-capita, population statistics, growth rates, etc. Some suggest qualitative factors such as system of government and/or the level of transparency. Others feel that socioeconomic factors such as literacy, health, and the status of women and children are important considerations.

As such, articulating a single definition of emerging markets, and getting agreement on what such a market is or what countries may be called emerging, has proven to be extremely difficult. A clear consensus does not exist and perhaps it never will.

Related to this, there is no single factor that is likely to propel emerging markets. What is important is a combination of quantitative, qualitative and sociopolitical factors (which, for convenience, we shall group together and call the ten drivers of growth). These factors will be critical in determining the fate of many of these emerging nations.