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The Modeling Problem

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All plans are based on models. The most sophisticated plans use computers for modeling. Other models are simply in the heads of the people doing the planning. Models are simplifications of reality, but such simplifications are necessary simply because reality is too complicated.

For some purposes, simplifications are useful. For example, a company or government agency might use a model to forecast the need for its products or services. But when writing plans that make complex decisions about such things as how people should be allowed to use their property, planning runs up against a barrier that can be expressed as the Law of Modeling Limits:

The Best-Laid Plans

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