Читать книгу Trend Following - Ritholtz Barry - Страница 11

It is typical the general public equates winning in the markets with abusing the financial market system – you know the horror stories so I won’t overwhelm you. However, there are players with the utmost integrity who achieve spectacular returns year after year. Examine their beliefs and self-perceptions and you will understand what keeps them honest. But before you examine their perspectives, take a moment to consider your own.

For example, at the end of the 1990s or let’s say summer 2007 or even fall 2016 for that matter, when investors were feeling more secure financially on paper, the you-know-what hit the fan or was about to, and by the time it was over, they had lost significant money. They became angry with analysts, experts, brokers, and money managers whose advice they had guzzled down. Now they know they will not meet their investment goals or come close to the mythological retirement. They’ve religiously held on to their remaining investments hoping they will eventually turn around, but 401(k) decisions are paralyzing. They still believe indexing or buying and holding is the way to go – after all, they’ve been sold that meme for decades. But now as a final act of desperation, they give up – they rationalize winning as only dumb luck.

Still others lost even more in October 2008, but, win or lose, they enjoy the thrill in the hopes of the one trade that makes them rich. Investing gurus, stock tips, and all of that is their entertainment. Plus they love to boast about their investments – ego needs attention, after all. Yes, they are depressed and angry when they lose, but when they win it feels terrific – it’s the heroin-junkie high. Since their main goal is to invest for quick profits, they will keep doing what they’ve always done. After all, there was one time a few years ago when a tip made a nice profit they still dream about.

Stop.

There is a much better way to think: Your approach becomes objective, moving as close as you can to rational. You have enough confidence in your own decision making that you never seek out investment recommendations. You’re content to wait patiently for the right opportunity. And you’re never too proud to buy a stock making new highs, even all-time highs. For you, investing opportunities are market breakouts. Conversely, when wrong, you exit immediately, no questions asked. You view loss as an opportunity to learn, move on, and save money to play another day. Obsessing on the past is pointless. You approach trading as a business, making note of what you buy or sell and why in the same matter-of-fact way you balance your checkbook. By not personalizing your trading decisions, your emotional indecision has the chance to decrease.

The first perspective is that of a market loser; the latter a winner. Don’t be in a hurry to choose your approach until you know what the choice entails. And look, don’t be shy about it. You have to want the money. You have to want to get ahead and be rich – the critics’ condemnation, the player hating, the rank jealousy be damned. Speculation is not only honorable – it is life. Profit-seeking speculation is the absolute driving force of markets and without it there is only disintegration.30