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1.2 Losses of Credibility

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Sadly, not all reported science is credible. In 2005, the Journal of the American Medical Association published “Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research,” by J.P.A. Ioannidis (now at Stanford University) (Ioannidis 2005). Among his findings, “Five of six highly‐cited nonrandomized studies had been contradicted or had found stronger effects” than other, better‐designed studies. In other words, only one in six (17%) of these highly influential medical studies was credible.

Some scientific studies lost credibility due to poorly designed experiments. We offer this text to our readers to help them plan and execute experiments that are credible. There is no excuse for poorly designed experiments.

Retractions of scientific studies are no longer rare. The New York Times reported in 2011, that a “well‐known psychologist…whose work has been published widely in professional journals falsified data and made up entire experiments” (Carey 2011). In his case, more than 50 articles were retracted. A site devoted to retracted science, Retraction Watch, can be found at http://retractionwatch.com.

A whole industry of fact‐checkers has come into existence, purportedly to expose the false and reveal the true. We know, however, even fact‐checkers must be checked. Let this motivate us.

Planning and Executing Credible Experiments

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