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Changing Demographics

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Changing demographics is a social reality shaping the provision of learning in contemporary American society. Demographics is about people, groups of people, and their respective characteristics. For the first time in our society, adults outnumber youth, there are more older adults, the population is better educated than ever before, and there is more cultural and ethnic diversity. For various reasons, individuals and groups of people seek out learning experiences; for other reasons, society targets learning activities for certain segments of the population. Thus, certain learning activities are learner initiated and others are society initiated in response to the changing demographics. The field is concerned with the growth and development of adult learners, while at the same time, there are emerging groups of learners with special needs.

To begin, there are simply more adults in our society than ever before, and the population will continue to age. In comparison to colonial times when half the population was under age 16, in 1990, fewer than one in four Americans were under age 16 and half were age 33 or older. The median age of the American population was 38 years in 2017 up from of 35.3 years in 2000 and this figure is expected to increase to 43 by 2060 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017b, 2018a, 2018b). The so-called Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are a contributing factor to this change in the population. The Baby Boomers started turning 65 in 2011 and by 2056 those over age 65 will outnumber individuals under 18 (Ortman, 2012, U.S. Census Bureau, 2017b).

The shift from a youth-oriented to an adult-oriented society is solidified by the increasing numbers of older adults in the population. In addition to an increase of persons over age 65, the oldest old, those over 85 years old, are the fastest-growing segment of the older population. The number of people age 85 and older is expected to grow from 5.8 million in 2010 to 19 million in 2050. This age group is expected to comprise 2.3% of the population in 2030 and 4.3% in 2050 (Vincent & Velkoff, 2010). In addition, the population over age 65 is expected to become increasingly racially diverse and the life expectancy gap between men and women is expected to narrow (Vincent & Velkoff, 2010).

Today's older adults are also increasingly better educated, in better health, and many are economically better off than previous cohorts. Society is already heeding their learning needs with policies like tuition waivers for higher and continuing education programs and specially designed programs, such as the popular Road Scholar program and learning-in-retirement institutes. There has also been a subtle change in the philosophical rationale—at least among those working in the fields of gerontology and educational gerontology—underlying the provision of education for this group. Along with an economic rationale (the better educated need fewer social services) and a social stability rationale (millions of healthy retired people need something to do) is an awareness that older adults as well as younger ones have an unending potential for development. The stereotypical idea of retirement as a time for cognitive decline and withdrawal seems to be slowly changing as an increasing number of individuals are reaching retirement age and the media, although still promoting some stereotypes, is showing older adults actively engaged in a wide variety of activities. Additionally, retirement communities arrange learning opportunities for their residents including lectures, travel, concerts, and discussion groups.

Thus, more adults and an increase in the number of older adults are two demographic factors influencing the provision of learning activities in our society. So, too, is the rising level of education characteristic of U.S. citizens. This is dramatically illustrated by the fact that 90% of the U.S. population age 25 or older has completed high school or higher levels of education, which compares with 24% in 1940 (Schmidt, 2018). Because previous education is the single best predictor of participation in adult education, the rising educational level of the adult population is a contextual factor of considerable import. For example, 66% of U.S. adults 26–35 years old participated in adult education activities compared to 49% of those 56–65 years old (Desjardins, 2015). In adults age 16–65 (excluding individuals from 16 to 24 in formal studies), 31% with less than a high school education participated in adult education activities whereas 79% of those with a high school education or higher participated in adult education activities (Desjardins, 2015).

Participation in adult education is also affected by literacy and economics. In the United States, 27% of low-literate adults said they had participated in adult education within the last year, while 84% of those with higher levels of literacy participated (Desjardins, 2015). This pattern is seen in other countries as well. In Korea, the respective figures are 13% for low-literates and 77% for those with higher literacy rates, and Cyprus's figures are 24% and 51%, respectively (Desjardins, 2015). Participation rates for U.S. adults ages 16–65 whose parents had not graduated from high school was 39%, while individuals where at least one parent completed high school was 72%.

Another demographic characteristic of the social context is the growing cultural and ethnic diversity of America's population. Roughly 13.4% or 43.7 million people residing in the United States are foreign born (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD], 2018). Twenty-six percent of those who are foreign born and living in the United States are from Mexico (OECD, 2018). Applications for asylum in the United States have risen especially from citizens from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador (OECD, 2018). Although immigration rates are expected to slow somewhat in the short term due to U.S. governmental policies enacted in the late 2010s, (OECD, 2018), starting in 2030, “net international migration is projected to become the largest driver of population growth” (Vespa, Armstrong, & Medina, 2018, p. 12). Immigration combined with birthrate projections in the United States mean there will be an increase in the Latinx, Asian, and African American populations with a decrease in Whites. In 2016, non-Hispanic Whites comprised 61.3% of the population and by 2060 they will make up 44.3% of the population. In contrast, the Latinx population is expected to increase almost 10% from 17.8% of the U.S. population in 2016 to 27.5% in 2060. The African American population is projected to increase almost 2% from 13.3% in 2016 to 15% of the population by 2060. The Asian population is expected to grow from 5.7% to 9.1% of the population. The percentage of those of two or more races is expected to expand from 2.6% of the population in 2016 to 6.2% in 2060 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017c). By 2045, people of color will account for 51.3% of the population (Frey, 2018).

The socioeconomic and cultural diversity of today's immigrant population presents special challenges. In 2016, 30% of the foreign-born population age 25 or older possessed a bachelor's degree or higher and 29% lacked a high school diploma or GED (Zong, Batalova, & Hallock, 2018). Fifty-two percent of the immigrants in the United States over age 5 are English proficient (Radford, 2019). Immigrants' income varies with education level, occupation, industry, and geographic region, but immigrants tend to earn less than their native-born counterparts although the gap is small for those with a bachelor's degree or higher (U.S. Department of Labor, 2018). Hence, immigrants' income and opportunities can vary depending on their education level and language proficiency, with the less educated and less English proficient “concentrated in trade and labour professions and confined mostly to general education programmes” (Calvo & Sarkisian, 2015, p. 1044). Courses for immigrants include English as a second language courses, adult basic education (ABE), and other community-based courses in “nutrition, parenting, immigration issues and other informal education opportunities” (Larrotta, 2017, p. 67). Typically, churches, libraries, social service centers, and community centers are places where immigrants engage in adult education (Larrotta, 2017).

In summary, the composition of society is an important factor in the provision of learning opportunities for citizens of all ages. In the United States, there are more adults than youth, the number of older adults is growing, the population as a whole is better educated, and more diverse—racially, ethnically, and culturally—than ever before.

Learning in Adulthood

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