Soccernomics

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Simon Kuper. Soccernomics

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Second, older players are overrated. ‘I’ve noticed over the years how often Liverpool sell players as they near or pass their thirtieth birthday,’ notes Taylor in his book. ‘Bob Paisley [Liverpool’s then manager] believes the average first division footballer is beginning to burn out at thirty.’ Taylor added, rather snottily, that that was true of a ‘running side like Liverpool’, but less so of a passing one like Forest. Nonetheless, he agreed with the principle of selling older players.

The master of that trade for many years was Wenger. Arsenal’s manager is one of the few people in football who can view the game from the outside. In part, this is because he has a degree in economic sciences from the University of Strasbourg in France. As a trained economist, he is inclined to trust data rather than the game’s received wisdom. Wenger is obsessed with the idea that in the transfer market clubs tend to overvalue a player’s past performance. That prompts them to pay fortunes – in transfer fees and salaries – for players who have passed their prime. FIFA TMS analysed the pay of players who moved internationally to Brazil, Argentina, England, Germany, Italy and Portugal in 2012, and found, remarkably, that the average man earned his peak fixed salary at the ripe old age of 32.

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