Читать книгу Pricing Insurance Risk - Stephen J. Mildenhall - Страница 53

An ice cream manufacturer wants to introduce a product that customers will prefer over existing ones. It would be very helpful to have a way of predicting customer ice cream preferences. As far as a customer is concerned their preference may be very simple and intuitive: “this brand tastes better!” That preference is not expressed in a way that the manufacturer can use to predict customer responses to a new product. However, through taste tests the manufacturer is able to determine general principles which do predict the preferences of most customers. For example, most customers prefer ice cream with a higher fat content and natural rather than artificial ingredients. This information is a good start but ideally the ice cream manufacturer can find a way to represent it numerically—an ice cream measure, if you will—which will enable them to analyze it much more easily.

Risk preferences have many parallels with ice cream preferences. Both are somewhat idiosyncratic and personalized—but some general principles about them can be determined, although it is harder for risk since there is no simple taste test to elicit risk preferences. Like ice cream manufacturers, risk management professionals would benefit from having a risk measure that quantifies a true risk preference and allows them to predict how individuals act. In this section, we try to find such risk measures. It is important to note that risk preferences are opposite to ice cream preferences in the sense that better ice cream is preferable, whereas more risk is not.

Formally, a risk measure is a real-valued functional on a set of random variables that quantifies a risk preference—the way an individual or group of individuals decides risk questions. The random variables represent risks, and the risk measure conducts a taste test; given two, it predicts which one is preferred, i.e. has lower risk. A risk capital formula, such as NAIC RBC or Solvency II SCR, and a classification rating plan are archetypal risk measures. Section 6.5 provides a compendium of other standard risk measures.