Читать книгу The Third World War Is in Progress Now - Tawny Eagle - Страница 8
ОглавлениеATTACKING THE WESTERN OIL INDUSTRY WITH THE OIL PRICE.
At the end of January China implemented the largest quarantine in human history to “try to contain the corona virus,” locking down at least 16 cities, however the COVID-19 had already spread to all world’s continents. The COVID-19 outbreak’s most visible city (to the world outside China) was now in China and was completely barricaded, with people being welded into their homes, clean up teams being sent in and many citizens disappearing unnoticed and unregistered. The death count sent out by China remained impressively low. This was declared by the Chinese as a great victory of the lockdown and control efforts to make the shut down as short as possible and take the best advantage of the situation.
The lockdown of the epicentre of the COVID-19 in China ended on April 8 and China started to open just as much of the world was closing or had just closed.
Late in January some of the former East German intelligence operators, who although resident in Germany still had strong Soviet links and family ties, held their regular intelligence meeting with their ex colleagues in the intelligence trade.
Gustav (German intelligence) spoke first - (Russian language was used in the meeting by both sides. The meeting had similar long statements punctuated this time for distrust. In this a way the Russians to first see what the Germans offered before committing to giving something in return and have time for response formulation to allow bargaining. The resultant format in the end is like that used by world leaders “for language reasons” in their meetings).
I hope you are well; I feel extremely uneasy with the current US president, we have heard that many in the white house believe that he is a despot surrounded by sycophants and capable of any act. He is planning to keep the Syrian Oil that says he is ‘helping to defend and stop Syrian regime forces taking control of ‘with troops at Oil installations in Syria. America is allowing the Oil to be sold and America is keeping the profits ‘temporarily to stop it falling into the current regime’s hands’, his real plan is to keep the Oil and profits permanently, which is the crime of looting in effect and against international Law.
There is already a plan in place to attack Iran and eventually recolonizing Iraq to cut off the old Silk Road route needed for the Belt and Road Initiative that the Chinese are currently busy making, which would give China good access to Europe and Africa. I do believe according to my sources that America is getting remarkably close to enacting this plan because the President sees it, as a way to win the next general election as well as a huge land and resource grab.
I would think it to be a good idea to mention this to the Russian President in order that he can either dissuade the Americans or do it himself first.
The Russians would be far better to be able to clean up the mess afterwards and restore order but also to ensure the limiting of terrorism which would be an eventual fallout. If one looks at what the Americans have done to Iraq you can see what the future could bring with them occupying it officially, I think it would be a disaster. After all I think it would be a very good time for the Russian President to talk to the American President, because being so close to the elections he would not dare any of the real truth of how he was elected or what help he had; to come out. I think this would be an ideal time to use that bargaining chip if it is required. After all the American President, shouts his mouth off but can be made to back off with real threats, as we have seen that from North Korea, China and from various other debacles. He has no honour or integrity and not great intelligence so I’m sure that the Russian President will be able to guide him without too much trouble as others, not least the ones I’ve already mentioned, have done so in the past.
This information was all obtained from a source we have had for the last 20 years in the Pentagon. He gives us a weekly briefing and is exceptionally reliable so you can be assured this information is accurate. What do you have for me my friend?
Trotsky (East German now in Russia ex East German intelligence officer)
Well I was informed by the presidential advisor that our security services must be ready to track and trace all Chinese entering Russia and to ensure that we check their temperature on arrival without making a public scene of it. He has stated that there is a new virus that is stronger than the usual flu called COVID-19 and it’s spreading from China. He has said that we must minimise the contact of the Chinese with Russian people so that we can easily understand the source of any infections and we will quietly put people into confinement if we find them to be in anyway ill on arrival. This is an extremely serious measure and therefore indicates the level of the threat perceived by us.
There have been talks between China and Russia. Mainly one must understand that the only way to stop this COVID-19 now is to stop people contracting it, until such time as a viral drug and vaccine can be made. This means that people either will be confined or at least distanced to avoid contracting it for a severe period of time as we do not know how long the drugs will take to produce, but it will be months at least.
You may wish to ask China for some useful medicines as they have developed the use of existing drugs and possibly new ones that really lower the death rate, which ones is not known in the West and China cannot “discover” that yet as the virus has not been officially known long enough to make it possible to have discovered that – clear?
Ok until the next meet, that we will not have, like we did not have this one - goodbye.
Because of this intelligence Germany knew to take the threat much more seriously and reacted with many less proven cases of the virus than others. Even more remarkable because of the much larger population Germany has than most other European countries. (perhaps also an effect of the visa for entry to Germany from China being limited secretly by China, starting in November the previous year). Germany started lockdown preparations on the 10th March. The German death rate remained consistently much lower than all the other European countries per number of cases and total deaths per thousand of their population. The German number of deaths per thousand population was strikingly like China’s, rather than the rest of Europe’s, strange considering the geographical position of Germany don’t you think reader?
In Italy, a nationwide lockdown went into effect starting on March 10 and their lockdown stopped all large group activities and confined people to home with travel effectively suspended. Spain became the second country in Europe to impose a nationwide lockdown but there was complete lack of information and planning in both countries with many infringements and failures. France closed non-essential businesses on March 16 implementing a full lockdown. On March 27 Ireland went into lockdown banning public gatherings and walks outside. Consequently, they were all still in effect having only very recently started when China was re-opening.
The main problems were that none of the countries had a clear view of what would be the most effective way to limit the viral spread, this was because they did not have various critical knowledge. Everyone was looking for answers such as what the transmission methods were, or how long the COVID-19 could stay active when outside of a body, how it was affected by climate or other factors, what could kill it and what not. Adding to the difficulty was the fact that everyone was painfully aware developing a vaccine for a new COVID-19 would take probably one and a half years (at the very best one must bear in mind that the aids has not been overcome with a vaccine in 40 years so there is no certainty that a vaccine can ever be found.) At the time there were no drug therapies that the West could find that appeared effective.
At this point world leaders descended to an “any man for himself” modus operandi, with only one or two exceptions. They tried to cover their backs by ordering lockdowns but trying to make them not too upsetting for the public by randomly banning certain activities but not others that they knew the public would take badly to being banned. The so-called scientific community did much the same wildly projecting statistics for events that they did not have reliable input for. One great miscalculation was when the virus had entered each country. All the Western countries (except Germany) were calculating one or two months late, meaning that the number of people infected already was far greater than those that were used for the statistical calculations.
The number of infections were calculated from an assumed infection rate from a starting point of the first known infection in the country in question. Each having its own start date and place that the first infected individual was assumed to have arrived. If the first infected person for the country in question, was two months earlier than that used in the calculations, then the number of people infected when the calculations were made, was far higher than the result of the calculation. The calculations were the only way to estimate the number of infections, as there was no capability to test enough people for the COVID-19 to make an actual estimate. The incorrect starting point for the number of people infected, meant that there were many more people infected than the calculation gave. An apparently much higher death rate per 1,000 people infected was calculated as a result and as the deaths were visible but the number of virus cases in the population causing them was not. Fear confusion and all sorts of wild actions in the populations and their Leaders resulted.
A further twist began to emerge when leaders realised that if they made the COVID-19 seem even worse than it actually was, leaders could gain compliance and cover their actions much easier, so the system of reporting was changed. The new reporting from deaths from the COVID-19, to all deaths where the person had the COVID-19 (but it was not necessarily the cause of the persons death.) Since there was just not enough tests or test kits available to be able to be sure who had the COVID-19, even deaths where the doctor thought the person might have had the virus, were registered as deaths from the virus. The were no antibody test available that could otherwise have shown who now already had COVID-19 immunity.
The statisticians also never mentioned if only one percent of the population have been tested for the virus, but of the one percent tested, five percent of those had COVID-19; then it may be reasonable to assume that five percent of the country’s population have the COVID-19 not .05% of the country’s population have the COVID-19. The fact that this was never considered shows that there was a great attempt to make the COVID-19 seem extremely more deadly than it was.
A difference between number of active cases at 3 million or 30,000. If the deaths recorded were 10,000, then the death rate per cases of the virus, would appear to be one in three (33%) instead of the real figure one in three Hundred (0.3%), the misleading reporting frightened the populations or the West as it was designed to do.
Once the lockdowns commenced there was no real plan in the West of how to decide on the re-opening. Governments said things like, we must see a real improvement in the number of new COVID-19 cases. But the picture was slowly emerging that without any drugs capable of treating the COVID-19 or any effective vaccine then eventually the only defence would be herd immunity. The only way to get herd immunity was to get people infected with the COVID-19 and cure themselves with their immune system, this of course would be slowed by a lockdown. To be conclusive the Lock Down would have to be years long and totally effective to eliminate the virus, therefore a COVID-19 cure was needed as well as a vaccine.
Sweden is on a “low-scale” lockdown. Gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, and high schools and universities are closed — but primary schools, restaurants, and many businesses are still open.
Lockdowns in various forms commenced all the world in March and April. Done even though there was no real evidence that this would help more than, implementing some social distancing restriction and with a virtual certainty that it could not continue until effective therapy and or vaccines were available. The lockdowns would create economic damage all over the world in extreme amounts and possibly result in a death toll far greater than the COVID-19 death toll itself. the resultant complications in poor countries of lack of food and resources assistance would wreak havoc. Public opinion swung backwards and forwards between blaming the governments for locking down too late and blaming the government for locking down at all. Scandinavia was one of the few countries that made an effective halfway house the results of that they will be pleased to say was probably the same as a lock down.
The plan seemed to have worked just exactly as the Chinese and Russian leaders had planned during their constant communications in January. They rightly felt that once some countries were shutting down, the rest would simply have to follow a short while later. The lockdown methods were very haphazard, so the lockdowns did not happen immediately, or with maximum efficiency and compliance, allowing time for the COVID-19 to be effectively distributed just as they had predicted it would, creating exactly the effect that had been hoped for.
The President of America ignored his advisers with a view to maintaining the American economy open, which he knew was his main and probably only hope of being re-elected, he constantly downplayed the COVID-19 threat which he simply hoped would not be as bad as people were predicting but had no evidence to back up. The American President only bothered to liaise totally superficially with the Chinese and American experts to ensure that the COVID-19 was contained. He was unaware of the severity as the world have had many SARS virus epidemics in the past that were accepted as ‘normal’. He was unaware of the deaths caused even in his own family, this was typical of his superficial nature and all that was hoped by the Russians and Chinese.
As the death toll in America grew, the president of America immediately began damage limitation and blame assignment, as he insulted the Chinese and the World Health Organisation, eventually cutting off WHO funding from America, which potentially will kill millions of people. All of this to remain popular, like someone trying to climb up a glass wall in attempt to escape his fate.
Europe fared not much better, probably because at the time they were consumed with Brexit in a bitter struggle of jealousy and spite against the UK from Europe and because the Germany and France were trying to maintain financial dominance and dictatorship over Europe and Britain; even as the UK was leaving the European Union.
Leaders were trying to avoid tough unpopular decisions about the COVID-19 and Oil prices that were not perhaps in their own personal interest to take. Reactions seem to show that politicians (including world leaders) have a herd mentality, as do the stock market traders, financial institutions, medical institutions, Company directors and COOs, lawmakers and many other key sections of modern society, that cause the same in populations. There were various knee jerk reactions and general confusion reigned, in the case of the COVID-19 outbreak and Oil price crash.
Once Europe woke up after thousands of deaths in Italy and the rapid spread of the COVID-19 across the other European countries, it became obvious that no one even knew the origin or nature of how the COVID-19 was spread, how to protect against it and whether it was airborne or not? How long could it live outside the body? What sterilisation methods killed it. Was it seasonal or not? who was vulnerable to it? Was it a virus that targets the old or the young as many viruses seem to have a preference, or what is affective death rate per infection? There were many wild and differing reactions to the COVID-19 that all seemed to culminate in forms of restricted movement and reduction in contact between people. Of course this was inefficient and most people turned on the government looking desperately for someone to blame they blamed the government for shutting down too early not enough too long not having enough protective equipment even though it wasn’t sure what protective equipment was needed, generally turning on each other and also China, this was then the perfect time for the Oil plan to continue.
The Russians realising that global demand would, be extremely weak for Oil had worked closely with the Saudis to call off OPEC agreements that were in place and generally draw attention to the Oil price, as well as diplomatically working towards garnering support for a huge OPEC plus production cut deal. The Saudis responded in apparent outrage (as secretly planned) saying they would overproduce crashing the Oil price. It was by this time realised of course, that no matter what OPEC did, because of the lock downs, the dip in Oil price would come, how deep and how long and who it affected that mattered more than anything, hence they aimed to manage the effects. They also knew a huge cut would then create the environment for a rapid Oil price recovery as soon as the lockdowns and restrictions of movement were removed, and excess oil had been consumed.
The Saudis continued hiring all the VLCCs that they could get their hands on, these tankers would be filled with the over production that the Saudis promised, and the world doubted that they could maintain. The immediate plan was not understood by the Americans. For one they underestimated the ability of the Saudis and Russians to hold down, to exceptionally low values the WTI Oil price. The Americans had the example of the previous Oil price crash, where in fact the shale Oil producers (critical to high Oil output levels) were able to resist and re-emerge immediately after. The resurgence was because the Oil price had not been low enough for long enough and the simple nature of the land based horizontal drilling and fracturing work, meant that it lent itself to great efficiencies and cost reductions, being made especially under a administration very friendly to it. This time however the plan had been better thought out, the Saudis produced for months at extremely high levels, hired and sent virtually all of the world spare tanker supply (those available for hire plus their own) over to America and unloaded it, or stood it off the coast. These tactics ensuring that even when Saudi turned down the taps, back to the original pre-agreed levels ready for the future re-opening of economies, there was over a hundred million barrels of Oil off the American coast waiting to be unloaded, therefore continually suppressing the Oil price.
In fact, for the first time in history for a short time Oil in America was in a negative price, meaning that someone had to be paid to store it as almost all is available storage was full. The terrible lack of demand due to Corona COVID-19 coupled with the unsure timing of when any travel bans could be lifted, and world economies would take off again meant the higher levels of production which are now possible made Oil for a short time worthless.
The scale of the storage is unimaginably large. The 5-year average in America is around half full and this rolling average is used to estimate future price of Oil, if they are fuller production is higher than demand and the price will likely fall. Because of the huge amounts (of Oil) stored the oversupply does not correct immediately after a cut in production rates, as Oil is sold out of storage to fill any gap in the market until the level in storage drops, the price then should rise but people bet on the future against this trend sometimes. How quickly it occurs depends on what the amount (of Oil) that is stored above the required normal strategic levels and how much the demand is greater than the supply. Whilst the stocks are being depleted though it is common that some producers still raise output usually out of desperation for revenue and make demand equal supply then the price will remain low for longer.
This crisis was equally bad for Oil companies who also were unsure how to react to it. Everyone was aware that crude Oil inventories would also have to fall from full to the five-year average level before any Oil price recovery significant could occur, but bets were off about when the recovery would be. Would demand recovery occur within a month of the end of the corona virus or would travel resistance created by fear as well as suppressed economies cause a depression for years, or would in fact the demand for Oil never recover to previous levels? China very wisely opened first as it has had the longest time to get their act in order, China is one of the biggest Energy users and had reopened after a matter of months. Most thought that after a short-term low price, Oil would come roaring back to the 45 to 65 USD / bbl. level that had become the new normal since 2016. But others like Shell were predicting a 3-year downturn.
During February and Early march the Oil was practically free to take away, the government of China could take the Oil knowing that China would be opening up just before the Oil arrived and could therefore use some and store the rest when others could not. China ordered 117 of their own VLCC tankers to be filled with cheap Oil from the Middle East and South America to be delivered to its ports in April and May. (The oil was loaded onto the VLCCs in February and March, gaining a huge economic advantage of over 15 Billion USD compared to the pre-crash price.)
The president of America called in Big Oil, to talk about the crisis and what subsidies if any could help? He entered the discussion saying that he would fill the national reserve if needed and if that would help the Oil companies (but the reserve was already two thirds full.)
Exxon assured the president of America, in an extra emergency meeting in addition to their regular private meetings, that natural market forces will solve this problem and the President simply took their word for that. Exxon see The President of America as a godsend allowing the roll back of all the legislation to protect the environment that had been introduced and generally giving them permission to operate in all areas, to grow and dominate. Never have they had times like this since Dick Cheney, an “Oil Man” was vice president 2001 to 2009. In fact, Politics in America is sometimes better described as “Poilitics”
