Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 140

Con‐way Inc. (CNF, now CNW) formed a broadening pattern starting in November 2003 and lasting until April 2004. Here's my notebook entry: “21 April 2004. I bought at market, filled at 37.13, 11:06 am. This is an upside breakout from a right‐angled broadening formation, descending. Measure rule says 41.14 is the target, call it 41. Downside is just below prior minor low, 34.33 for 8% loss. The truckers are doing well right now, despite wishy‐washy market and high fuel costs. The company also announced earnings that apparently were better than expected.”

I bought the day after the upward breakout. Over the next two weeks, the stock threw back, but I survived by holding on. My fingers hurt.

The stock started climbing in a measured move up type pattern (rise, retrace, rise). I raised the stop not once, nor twice, but seven times along the way to the sale.

On 12 July, the stop‐loss order took me out of the trade. From my notebook: “Mood (Sell too soon?): Good. The stop took me out and this morning [the stock] is trading even lower. Earnings are due in 5 days, so maybe the stock is signaling weak results. Time to move on as it pierced the trendline on the sell day.”

What trendline am I referring to? The only idea I have is to draw one connecting the throwback low along the bottoms as price climbed. The stock broke out of a 10‐day congestion region and pierced the up‐sloping trendline at the same time. That's when I sold.

I made 8% on the trade, but sold too soon. Yes, the stock moved sideways for almost 3 months but eventually made its way to 61.87 or 54% higher than where I sold.

For a swing trade (it wasn't supposed to be), this was a good execution. I bought the day after the breakout and sold before weakness took the stock lower and threw it sideways to down for months. For a longer term position trade (which was intended), I missed the big gain. Again.

 Lesson: When position trading, allow for more volatility to capture longer‐term gains.