Читать книгу The Book about Cryptocurrency №1. Second edition expanded - Viacheslav Nosko - Страница 3

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In 2013, a text appeared on Reddit.com, the author of which called himself Luka_Magnotta. The published entry detailed what planet Earth would turn into in the future. The letter from the future was dated 2025.

What was the mysterious author warning about? And now, when we have almost reached his time of living, what of the predictions – the truth, and what – so far – fantasy?

Every year, the price of bitcoin has risen 10 times on average. From $0.1 in 2010 to $1 in 2011, then to $10 in 2012 and $100 in 2013. Then the growth slowed down a bit, with the value increasing tenfold every two years: to $1,000 in 2015, to $10,000 in 2017, to $100,000 in 2019, and to $1,000,000 in 2021.

Well, so far it hasn’t reached the value of $100,000 per bitcoin, with the maximum bitcoin price reaching $68,789.63 in November 2021. After the decline in 2022, we are seeing the cryptocurrency rise again, so we may see Luka’s prediction gradually come true in the medium term.

Luka has raised major issues and described the fears of many opponents of cryptocurrency as coming true in the not-too-distant future. The author cites the price for 1 BTC in different years. Part of the predictions came true, the value of the coin roughly corresponded to reality.

As of 2019, Luka is wrong by a whole order of magnitude. Bitcoin is not worth $1 million, and so far its price has not even reached $100 thousand. The volatility of the asset does not allow you to make far-reaching predictions.

It is known that more than 19 million bitcoins have been issued in the world today. Several million have been permanently lost. The population of the planet is still just over 7 billion people.

And here is this prediction almost matches reality as of July 2023. The world has already mined 19,425,118 bitcoins. In general, this figure has already been calculated mathematically, based on the peculiarities of the mining algorithms. The maximum possible number of bitcoins is 21 million coins. Because of the mathematical model governing the issuance of bitcoins, it will take even more than 100 years to mine the remaining 9%. However, already, according to various reports, about 6 million bitcoins have been irretrievably lost. So because of the limited number of coins, it is logical to assume that the rate will grow even more, eventually reaching both $100,000 and a million dollars.

There are already more than 8 billion people on earth, of which, according to various data, from 100 million people or more own cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin blockchain data shows that there are currently more than a billion wallet addresses. But people may have more than one wallet or store their bitcoins on centralized custodial exchanges, making it difficult to estimate the actual number of people using bitcoin in the world.

In a letter from the future, Luka_Magnotta mentions Citatel (Citadels) – closed and fortified cities where bitcoin mining machines are located. Perhaps such cities have already appeared and will eventually really become free territories, uncontrolled by any states.

Now most bitcoins are mined in the United States, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Russia. Just in these countries Citadels will probably appear.

Further Luka_Magnotta predicts a complete collapse of traditional states.

In my world, which will soon become your world, most governments no longer exist because bitcoin transactions are anonymous and therefore most governments are unable to organize taxation of their citizens. Bitcoin’s success is primarily due to the fact that it has proven to be an effective method of hiding wealth from the government. At first, people entering «rogue countries» (such as Luxembourg, Monaco, and Liechtenstein) were chased by drones to ensure that the government knew who was trying to hide their wealth. Then, when people started hiding their funds using bitcoins, the government no longer had ways to control the process.

So far, complete anarchy has not happened on Earth, governments are working. But here’s a prediction about the use of unmanned drones could very well become a reality. UAVs are increasingly being used for both military and civilian purposes.

The economy is growing at about 2% per year. Why? Because if you have more than 0.01 bitcoin, you are probably not doing anything with your money. There is no inflation, and therefore no incentive to put your money anywhere.

And that prediction hasn’t materialized so far. Perhaps because cryptocurrencies have not yet displaced other assets and there is not yet a critical mass of owners who can only live off of the coin’s steady appreciation.

And further in the letter, the author increasingly thickens the colors, as if immersing the reader in a fantastic world of cyberpunk and post-apocalypse.

What happened to the Winklevoss twins? The Winklevoss twins were among the first to die. After the damage to society became clear, terrorist movements began to emerge that sought to hunt down and kill anyone they knew had a large hoard of bitcoins or who they believed was responsible for developing the cryptocurrency. Ironically, these terrorist movements use bitcoin to anonymously fund their operations.

The Winklevoss twins are fortunately doing just fine, their fortune in cryptocurrencies has long exceeded a billion dollars, the brothers have launched the Gemini platform, within which they have implemented their own unique key-holding scheme.

What other unpleasant things did Luka prophesize?

• Owners of large amounts of bitcoins are forced to go into hiding, change their identity.

• A quarter of bitcoin holders fell into the hands of extortionists and were tortured.

• In Africa there was a «tragedy» when 60% of the accumulated crypto-money was lost as a result of a hacker attack on cell phones that could be used to access the state ID and bitcoin wallet. These events sparked a wave of civil wars on the African continent, confusion and chaos that only the governments of Saudi Arabia and North Korea were able to stop.

• An underground network of rebels is preparing a powerful hacking attack on nuclear warhead control centers to launch several missiles and destroy major cities where computers are concentrated.

At the end of the letter, the author admits that the bitcoin situation has reached a dead end and this damned project must be destroyed now to prevent a nuclear winter in a few years.

So far, the identity of the author of this letter has never been established. Definitely the nickname Luka Magnotta is a pseudonym. The letter made a noise, quickly spread on specialized and not only resources, it was copied by hundreds of sites and translated into almost all languages of the world. There are also rumors that the message from the future was written by the same person (or group of people) who hides under the name of Satoshi Nakamoto – the creator of the first protocol for cryptocurrencies.

Be that as it may, so far the information voiced in the text is partially coming true. But in recent years we can see that blockchain technology is not only a market for cryptocurrencies, but also many other niches for application.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have emerged from blockchain technology (we will talk more about this in the first part of the book).

Blockchain today can be compared to the Internet as it was when it emerged back in the 1980s.

The technology is constantly evolving, and we may see many different applications in the future.

First of all, blockchain is associated with cryptocurrencies and payment systems that allow you to anonymously send money to anyone who has their own cryptocurrency wallet.

Besides the usual cryptocurrencies, this list includes utility tokens, digitized stocks, natural asset tokens, stablecoins, etc. At the end of 2020, there were about 1,000 different cryptocurrencies. In 2022, the number of them is more than 20 thousand units.

Another direction where blockchain technologies are applied is decentralized finance and DEX exchanges. Over the past five years, this direction has been actively developing, and only a lazy person has not heard about NFT. This topic deserves a separate conversation, so in this edition of the book there is an additional chapter about DeFi.

This sector falls into the category of rapid development with the help of innovative developments. Decentralized finance can include instruments created on the basis of blockchain and operating with the help of smart contracts.

While bitcoin has traditionally been opposed to fiat money and classical financial institutions, we see blockchain technology increasingly penetrating the banking industry. Blockchain can make global payments and money transfers faster and cheaper by eliminating intermediaries and intermediate steps. This can lead to lower fees and more efficient cross-border payments. Also, blockchain technology allows issuers and investors to issue and trade securities, such as stocks or bonds, directly and without intermediaries. This can simplify the process of raising capital and increase the availability of financing for SMEs. Blockchain can help banks improve customer verification and anti-money laundering processes through the creation of secure and shared databases. It can reduce costs and improve accuracy in meeting regulatory requirements. And blockchain can also provide transparency and immutability of financial data, which can be useful for record keeping and auditing. It can also help improve security and protection against data manipulation. In the future, no one will examine the credit history as the information will be shown due to the registry in blockchain.

International trade. In this sector, working with smart contracts makes it possible to simplify the issuance of customs invoices, licenses, certificates and other documents. All this is achieved through the speed of transactions and automation of processes. The development of this trend will reduce overall costs, time to clear cargo and reduce corruption.

Impact on value creation. Blockchain gives additional transparency, any transactions can be traced in data chains, ensuring reliability. This creates global value chains for goods. Future improvements in the technology will lead to transformations from cost reduction to increased efficiency, utilizing new operating models.

As we can see, so far the dire predictions of a global catastrophe have not come true. But in some ways, the mysterious Luka was right: blockchain, bitcoin and other currencies have changed our lives irrevocably.