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Choose the right train

In General, this is quite consistent with Russian directives on scientific and technical mobilization: “Time is being compressed, the scale of tasks and challenges is very large, it is huge. If we continue to spray money, move slowly forward, we will simply be late. …Even in the last car of the ‘technological revolution’ we will not have time to jump” (V. Putin).

Not to waste money means, among other things, to determine priorities, to choose from a variety of “technology trains” correct, reliable routes. This means, first of all, that the chosen technological directions should be realizable, and not just fantasies.

But not only that. It is also important to understand their humanitarian significance, to assess the socio-psychological, political (and not just defense and industrial) consequences of their implementation. It is necessary, figuratively speaking, to decide what will be especially important for people in the future – the technique of moving to Mars, wind energy or life without aging.

(Underestimating this “humanitarian” criterion can be fatal – the Soviet Country, without actually losing the arms race, suffered a catastrophic defeat because of its disregard for the human factor and the need to respond to the changing needs of people, including the emergence of new technologies).

However, this “humanitarian” analysis is in many ways more complex than scientific and technical analysis. It is often required from the authors of discoveries and inventions themselves, although it is quite strange to expect from specialists in electronics or molecular biology a deep understanding of the impact of their work on the future of social relations. Not surprisingly, the result is usually limited to the statement – " this technology will change the world”. On the other hand, there is no more benefit from the philosophy of social scientists who are not immersed in scientific and technical problems.

Only futurological research, i.e. synthesis of analysis of technology development with analysis of their interaction with a person, can give a real idea of future trends. Only this combination of natural science, engineering and human studies knowledge allows you to get a real idea of the future, to understand the laws of its formation.

Unfortunately, in the West today there are no, at least in the public domain, any serious futurological works of this kind. We do not pay attention to this either.

Time of futurology

At the same time, the role of futurological Analytics goes far beyond the choice of technological priorities. Thus, it is quite obvious that an adequate view of the global future is a prerequisite for success in making any strategic decisions in foreign and domestic policy, in the economy, defense, training, etc.

It is less obvious that futurological forecasts are an ideological, worldview factor, a tool for forming ideas about development goals in the public consciousness, opening up new horizons.

This is especially important for young people who feel the need for new, beyond the ordinary, incentives for activity. It is not surprising, therefore, that, for example, the more than dubious idea of the American entrepreneur I. Musk about the future colonization of Mars, aroused the enthusiasm of a considerable number of young people both abroad and here…

This example illustrates another obvious fact:

a society that is not able to formulate its own vision of the future is forced, one way or another, to focus on goals defined by others.

…Today, in a situation of “compressed time”, when the premonition of technological breakthroughs and their global consequences is literally in the air, the development of domestic futurology is of particular importance. No new colliders or spacecraft are needed to analyze future changes, but its importance cannot be overstated. The future must be studied. At least in order not to be late for the train biorevolution.